Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161936 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 336 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday evening and then offshore of the Southeast Wednesday. It will be dry this week with cool temperatures continuing tonight and Tuesday and then warming to above normal levels mid week. A cold front will move across the area Thursday night, bringing near normal temperatures late in the week and through the weekend. A frontal system will approach from the west early next week to bring showers and possibly thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...An approaching shortwave trough will be exiting offshore later this eve. This will provide a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air. In the wake of this feature, skies will clear. Winds will remain elevated through the first part of the night before diminishing to 2 to 5 mph toward Tue morning. This secondary push of CAA will bring 850 temps down to -2 to -5C. We are not expecting any freezing temps, mainly upper 30s to around 40. However, those traditionally cold spots will likely drop to the mid 30s for up to 3 or 4 hours around daybreak. Four inch soil temps are in the upper 50s to near 60 and the low- levels are expected to remain dry. These parameters in conjunction with the brevity of near critical temps should prevent the formation of early morning frost. However, it can not be completely ruled out on a very isolated basis, again where temps drop to the mid 30s. It is more likely that any frost that can form will be on elevated and exposed surfaces such as car roof tops, again on only a very isolated basis where temps can radiate down to the mid 30s. High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico Tue will move east and reach the Florida peninsula Tue eve. 850 temps will solidly rebound, reaching 7-10C late in the day. Deep, downsloping westerly flow should help temps to recover after the abnormally chilly start. We are forecasting highs in the mid and upper 60s, with plenty of sunshine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Dry conditions through early Thursday as the mid level pattern transitions from a modest northwest flow to zonal conditions through the period. At the surface a weak back door front will make a futile run south late Tuesday with a deep westerly flow developing Wednesday with essentially a Piedmont Trough developing. The downslope flow is represented in guidance by widespread highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday afternoon. Some uncertainty as to how much the sea breeze effect will penetrate inland with the strong and deep westerly flow but maintained the cooler readings along the coastal sites for now. Thursday`s lows should be around 60 area wide.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Cold front due to pass through on Thursday. With the lack of any veering ahead of the front for moisture advection its passage will be rain-free. Ahead of the boundary afternoon temps should surge for one last day of above climo conditions with fresh southwesterly breezes. The cool advection that follows should keep temperatures below climatology for the remainder of the period; though temperature departures from normal will not be overly large. Perhaps more importantly we do not anticipate any frost/freeze issues. Cloud cover will increase on Monday as a slow moving cutoff upper low approaches. This system will lead to cyclogenesis over the Gulf Coast along the southern periphery of the cool surface high in place. This will be a slow mover so the entire long term now appears to be rain-free.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 18Z...The front is now well offshore with high pressure pouring into the state. Good cold air advection will keep winds quite gusty today. A VFR strato cu ceiling is expected to form due to cold air aloft. The ceiling will dissipate later today with diminishing winds tonight. Tuesday, VFR with a moderate west wind. Little to no clouds expected. Extended outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight. A period of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may return Tue afternoon and eve. SW to WSW winds of 20 to 25 kt will increase to 25 to 30 kt in the wake of a dry and cold reinforcing surge through the first part of the night as the wind shifts to the NW. Wind speeds toward morning are expected to decrease to 15 to 20 kt. The center of cool high pressure will move east across the Gulf of Mexico Tue and reach the Florida Peninsula Tue eve allowing winds across the Carolina waters to back to SW Tue afternoon. The pressure gradient may tighten sufficiently Tue afternoon and eve to bring wind speeds up to marginal Small Craft Advisory levels, or at least to Small Craft Should Exercise Caution levels, around or just over 20 kt. Seas will be highest into the early eve, up to 5 to 8 ft. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft overnight and to 3 to 4 ft Tue morning before retracing higher Tue afternoon. Water levels did drop as low as minus 1.2 to minus 1.8 ft this afternoon and may return to similar levels with the overnight low tide and again with the afternoon low tide Tue afternoon. Thus, Marine Weather Statements may be required ahead of successive low tide cycles. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Gusty southwest winds will prevail across the waters through most of the period outside of a period of more of a westerly flow overnight Tuesday. The flow will be modulated by a zonal flow aloft and the development of a Piedmont Trough Wednesday. For the most part wind speeds will be 15-20 knots although expectations are for an increase for several hours Wednesday afternoon decreasing a little by the end of the period. With these winds and seas of 5-8 feet, expect a Small Craft Advisory will be in place for most of the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Thursday may start off with advisory-level conditions as approaching cold front leads to moderate gradient. Conditions will abate and improve as the day wears on however as high pressure builds in. By Friday morning a long period of N to NE post-frontal flow begins and no headlines expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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