Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231913 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 313 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front approaching from the north will produce a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and on Thursday. The front will dissipate over the area on Friday. Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring tropical moisture northward and help fuel a higher probability of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain across the eastern Carolinas Sunday and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...A mid-level disturbance along the Savannah River surrounded by very light steering flow should move very little over the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure moving across the Great Lakes will nudge a surface cold front southward across North Carolina tonight, stalling out across eastern South Carolina on Thursday. This should be the focus for another day of showers and thunderstorms. Today`s thunderstorm activity is developing along multiple east-west oriented convergence boundaries where the airmass is uncapped with CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Convective organization has remained minimal due to very weak wind shear: bulk shear across the 0-6 km layer is only 10-20 kt. SPC`s marginal severe weather threat across northeastern NC and southeastern VA is keyed to the stronger shear and potential for more significant storm cell organization that exists there. Convective activity should diminish this evening, however most recent runs of the synoptic and rapid update models show convection lingering through the night along the south end of the higher shear zone across North Carolina, particularly as the cold front eases its way south overnight and increases low-level convergence. A relative minimum in convection should occur Thursday morning, with showers and storms reblossoming Thursday afternoon mainly across South Carolina near the stalled front and pooled low-level moisture. Forecast PoPs are as high as 70 percent in the Florence vicinity Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight should range from 68-71. Highs Thursday are forecast to reach 80 on the beaches to around 84 inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Wednesday...Weak upper low across GA Thursday night will drift northward and weaken further across the far western Carolinas during Friday. In addition, the H5 ridge situated off the coast will help direct moisture plume back into the Carolinas and precipitable water will increase during the day in response. Expect the best convective coverage to be across the SC zones initially during Friday, then in the LBT zone group later in the day. During Friday the residual foot print of the old front will drift northward and finally become absorbed in the broader scale flow and awash in the sea breeze circulation. Favor a blend of MAV/MET numbers through the period which suggests near climatology high temperatures Friday and warmer than normal low temperatures each night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...As high pressure off the coast shifts eastward and a trough of low pressure exist over the east half of the United States, the winds will be from the south-southeast to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots. This extended period of fetch will see the seas rising from around 2 to 3 feet on Saturday to 4 to 6 feet by late in the day on Monday. When a small craft advisory may be needed.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across eastern South Carolina, and it looks to be a bumpy 3-4 hours ahead for the CRE, MYR, and FLO airports. The seabreeze has only made limited progress inland from the coast, and the westerly winds aloft are strong enough that it should not clear out at the coast as is typical this time of year. MVFR to local IFR conditions in thunderstorms is expected through 22Z. Across SE North Carolina, it appears South Carolina thunderstorms should reach the ILM airport around or just after 21Z, with rain behind the storms lingering through 00Z. The current mass of convection between Columbia and Florence, SC may build northward and reach the LBT airport between 20-22Z. Overnight a cold front approaching from the north should reach the area between 09-13Z Thursday. Moisture pooling along the front should lead to MVFR ceilings, with a lower potential of IFR ceilings and/or patchy fog developing through sunrise. Showers should begin to redevelop late Thursday morning. Extended Outlook...Brief/local IFR visibility is possible in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Tropical moisture returning to the area Sunday and Monday could bring more widespread thunderstorms with periods of IFR ceilings/visibility possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure pushing east across the Great Lakes will ease a cold front southward through North Carolina tonight. The front should reach the Cape Fear area shortly after sunrise Thursday, with the boundary slipping south along the Grand Strand between 8-11 AM. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front should turn northeasterly behind the front, but with no significant increase in wind speed expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should end early this evening south of Cape Fear but may continue overnight north of Cape Fear. Showers/storms should develop again Thursday afternoon, mainly south of Cape Fear. Seas currently around 3 feet should diminish by about a foot with lighter wind speeds on Thursday. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Onshore flow around 10 knots expected Thursday night with seas less than 3 ft. As high pressure off the Southeast U.S. becomes better established the flow will veer to a southerly wind by Friday night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters, more-so during Friday and Friday night. Seas 3 ft or less expected Friday and Friday night. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...As high pressure off the coast shifts eastward and a trough of low pressure exist over the east half of the United States, the winds will be from the south-southeast to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots. This extended period of fetch will see the seas rising from around 2 to 3 feet on Saturday to 4 to 6 feet by late in the day on Monday. When a small craft advisory may be needed.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...TRA

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