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000
FXUS62 KILM 130015
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
815 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move through this evening leading
to a few showers, mainly in NC. High pressure will then build
across the area into mid next week with warming temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. An approaching cold front later next
week could bring slightly better rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong line of thunderstorms that moved through Robeson/Bladen
counties is weakening and will move out of the area shortly.
Weaker showers/drizzle are traversing NE SC with not much in
way of rainfall. Quiet night ahead though still breezy.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We continue to be dealing with the cyclonic flow of the large
occluded low in the Northeast. As such SW to W winds will remain
gusty through the evening and not abate as much as `normal`
during the overnight hours. WV showing that within the trough
driving this system another strong vort crossing the mountains
will streak by this evening. Cu fields over northern zones show
areas where this ascent could lead to a gusty shower as this
occurs and have not strayed much from the 20-ish POPs from the
previous forecast. Not long after dark this meager instability
and mid level ascent will both be no more. Tomorrow we
transition from our wind being driven by the low in favor of the
high building in from the west. It will remain on the breezy
side, just a bit less than today. A Fire Danger Statement will
be issued following WFO RAH`s coord with Forestry. Saturday`s
highs will be close to seasonable norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Possible elevated fire danger inland Sunday

Confidence: High

Details: High pressure will prevail into early Sunday with dry
conditions expected. Given the dry and slightly gusty conditions
Sunday a marginally elevated fire danger could develop inland. Temps
should be a bit below normal Saturday night when decent radiational
cooling conditions should occur, then get above normal starting
Sunday when lower 80s are likely inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
*Much above normal temps

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: High pressure should generally prevail through Wednesday
keeping it mainly dry and unseasonably warm. However, a few
features/disturbances could impact the area starting Wednesday night
bringing a better chance for some rain, although amounts don`t
appear to be too heavy at this time. Temperatures should get into
the 80s inland each afternoon, possibly even reaching 90 degrees
for the first time this year!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR through the period. Stronger line of showers/storms in SE NC
is weakening and moving offshore while the weaker
showers/drizzle over NE SC don`t seem to be causing as strong of
wind. W winds overnight should stay near 8-10 kts with gusts
15-18 kts possible but not prevailing. Gusts pick up tomorrow
again 20-25 kts.

Extended Outlook...Gusty winds remain a concern through
Saturday, but otherwise, VFR is expected through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... The local gradient remains strong as a large
area of low pressure only slowly exits the Northeast, moving north.
As it does so high pressure starts to build from the west tomorrow
easing the gradient albeit gradually. Small Craft Advisory  remains
in effect through noon Saturday at which time wind and seas should
fall below criteria.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Should see an increase in
winds/seas starting Sunday afternoon as the pressure gradient
tightens back up due to offshore high pressure and inland low
pressure. Although winds/seas will remain elevated much of the
period they should not necessitate any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-
 254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/MBB