Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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085 FXUS62 KILM 250050 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 850 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will move across the area this evening bringing a few showers to the Cape Fear area and offshore. An upper- level low will produce showers on Wednesday. A weak cold front early Thursday and again Saturday will bring a chance for more showers. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 830 PM Tuesday...Surface low was drifting N across the I-95 corridor this eve. a complex frontal system was lifting N with this low. A band of showers has redeveloped along and just ahead of this front and will lift N this eve and into the overnight. The brunt of these showers will remain offshore, but isolated to scattered showers will skirt Pender and New Hanover counties through mid and late eve. The ground is very moist after 1-3" of rain, and if winds were light would expect a good deal of fog development overnight. However, winds are forecast to remain 5-8 mph for a good portion of the night and this should limit the potential for significant fog. In fact, soundings/MOS favor late night stratus and have increased the cloud cover toward morning. Lows tonight will be 55 to 60 as winds are not expected to completely decouple and developing stratus is expected to retard nocturnal cooling. On Wednesday, the upper low will finally shift overhead, and although the column will be drier, steepening lapse rates and good surface heating will provide the impetus for cumulus and showers Wednesday aftn. Guidance is highly variable in this solution, but expect at least some showers across mostly NC zones and have added low chc/schc for POP. Do not expect thunder on Wednesday. Highs will climb into the low/mid 70s, and have kept these values slightly below guidance due to expected cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Tuesday...As the short term forecast begins the first of the short waves/mid-level lows in the larger scale trough begins to pull away from the region. The second short wave will rotate around inside the larger trough and remain to the northwest of the forecast area on Thursday evening and overnight. The deep moisture is limited, but their is a small window where moisture does increase. There is a chance of showers Thursday night, but rainfall amounts should be less than a tenth of an inch closer to the coast and up to a quarter of an inch farther inland. Low temps will range from the middle to upper 50s Wednesday night and Thursday night. High temps will be in the middle 70s on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 320 PM Tuesday...The third mid-level shortwave, which will be stronger than the wave Thursday night, will be the last in the series to cross the region. The deepening trough will cross the Carolinas late Friday night and exit the coast late Saturday. After this short-wave trough clears the larger scale trough will shift east of the United States and ridging will become established. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon with lower 80s by Tue. The best chance of showers will be Saturday evening with a chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Surface low pressure centered near CLT will lift NNE to off the VA coast by 00Z Thu. Winds will veer to SW overnight, and residual moisture and light winds should lead to MVFR ceilings late tonight inland. A surface trough will reach the coast by 21Z Wednesday, and may be accompanied by a few showers, but given expected isolated nature, have opted to omit from forecast for now. Otherwise, the passage of the trough will result in WNW winds by Wednesday afternoon. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Sat. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 830 PM Tuesday...Weak low pressure was lifting N across the Carolinas tonight, dragging its accompanying frontal system across the waters. A few showers have developed across the northern waters, along and ahead of these features and we do expect scattered showers across the northern waters into mid and late eve. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 12z Wed across the southern waters and through 22z Wed across the northern waters. Seas this eve were still 7 ft at the inner Cape Fear buoys and near 10 ft at Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Seas have subsided from their peak earlier today and this trend will continue. However, the trend may be slower than normal given the 10-11 second SE swell. At this time, we are forecasting seas to drop below 6 ft across the southern waters during the late night and early morning hours, but perhaps not til Wed afternoon across the northern waters. The wind direction will remain from the SW through Wed. Wind speeds will be mainly 10 to around 15 kt. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Tuesday...unsettle weather will occur as a second front moves off the coast Thursday night and weak surface low moves up the coast. Winds are expected to stay below small craft conditions through this period with southwest winds of 15 knots Wednesday night then veering to the northeast at 10 knots on Thursday and then back to the the southwest at 15 knots late Thursday. Seas will be falling from 3 to 5 feet Wednesday evening to 2 to 3 feet by Thursday and increasing to 3 to 4 feet again ahead of the front on Thursday night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday...Another front will cross the coast on Friday and winds are expect to veer from SW winds to NW winds on Friday night. High pressure will build over the waters and winds and seas are expected to be at or below 15 knots and no advisories are expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/JDW SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...CRM

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