-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141728
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
127 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area this weekend and will
persist through mid next week bringing mostly dry and unseasonably
warm conditions. A few disturbances and a cold front will then
bring a better chance for some rain later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE/...
Added IFD to Robeson, Bladen, and Pender Counties per some concerns
with NCFS regarding fuel moisture. No other changes to the forecast
at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure currently south of the area will shift
offshore during the day today. This will kick off low level warm
advection by this afternoon, keeping mixed dewpoints a little higher
than yesterday while also increasing afternoon temps to above
normal. Highs today will be low 80s across most of the CWA, with
upper 70s/80 closer to the coast thanks to sea breeze. Clear skies
during the day with a few high clouds moving in this evening into
tonight as weak 500mb impulses move across. WAA tonight combined
with lingering surface winds will keep lows in the upper 50s through
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Summer-like weather for the short term period, minus the
uncomfortable RH.

Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure centered offshore from the
Southeast States Coast will dominate the local weather this
period. Lee-side sfc trof will be present Mon across the western
Carolinas resulting in a pinched sfc pg across the FA between
it and high pressure centered offshore. As a result, Mon will be
a breezy day for the most part. Mon nite into Tue, a cold front
will try to backdoor the FA from the north. At this time, it
looks to remain just north of the FA before finally returning
north later Tue. Any pcpn should remain north of the FA
especially with W-NW scouring and compressional heating flow off
the Appalachians. What the FA will see is max temps both days
likely well into the 80s away from the immediate coast. Night
time lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday into Thu looking at continued summerlike well into the
80s high temps, especially Thu. During this period the ridging
aloft flattens out as a series of s/w mid level trofs push thru,
with the main dynamics remaining well north of the FA.
Nevertheless may see a few frontal systems push thru, 1 Thu
morning with moisture limited for pcpn but enough for periodic
clouds. Fri thru Sat the models seem to no longer phase in with
1 another, as 1 would expect this far out in time. Nevertheless,
they do try to cool the FA down with 1 additional CFP. Pcpn
remains suspect given the zonal flow aloft and/or the
possibility of low amplitude ridging. At this time, have
indicated silent 15 to 20ish pops, and additional clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. No CIGS or VSBY restrictions and a light SW wind once and SE
seabreeze-induced winds veer.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Offshore winds this morning will shift to
southwesterly as center of surface high pressure moves off the
Southeast coast, with some enhancement near the coast due to
afternoon sea breeze as inland temps push into the low 80s. Seas
during the day will be around 2 feet, primarily from 1-2 ft SE
swell and a weak wind chop. SSW winds and seas increase this
evening into tonight, with sustained winds near 15 kts and gusts
of 20 kts and seas of 3-4 ft by Monday morning with the
building SSW wind waves.

Monday through Thursday Night...
SCA thresholds are not expected to be met this period. Sfc high
pressure centered offshore from the SE States Coast will
dominate the winds for the majority of this period. Looking at
mainly SW winds Mon thru Wed, peaking Mon into Mon night due to
a tightened sfc pg. Will need to watch the possibility of low
level jet influence early Mon morning or late Mon night which
could result in 20 to 25 kt SW wind gusts. For Thu, winds
possibly veer to the NW-N north of Murrells Inlet, and Westerly
south of the Inlet. This the result of a potential CFP with
windspeeds to remain below SCA. Short period seas dominate Mon
into Tue with 2 to 4 ft seas, except a few 5 footers possible
off Cape Fear Mon. Wed into Thu, a 9+second period SE swell will
periodically dominate. Each day may see an active sea breeze
nearshore, resulting in 3 to 5 second period temporarily hier
wind waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MBB