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000
FXUS62 KILM 180531
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
131 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. A few
light showers are possible overnight, but more substantial rain
chances arrive on Friday as a cold front moves across the area.
The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining
elevated rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Showers are circumventing the area with winds overnight winds
expected to hold off any meaningful fog development as of now.
No major updates to the forecast. 06Z aviation discussion below.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A steady stream of mid and high level moisture will continue
across the area through Thursday morning. A bit of a consensus
warrants some slight chance pops in and around 0600 UTC
overnight otherwise it should be dry. Clouds may not be a
prevalent or as thick Thursday when compared to today so high
temperatures should reach the middle to perhaps even upper 80s.
Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Brief post-frontal high pressure on Thursday night will slide
offshore on Friday. A cold front approaches the area on Friday
with increasing moisture.

Warm ahead of the front with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Marginal instability could produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but dry air in the low levels should limit
coverage. A storms could produce breezy outflow, but severe
weather is not anticipated.

Diurnal convection comes to an end by Friday evening. The front
will crawl eastward overnight keeping overnight lows mild: low
to mid 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Crawling front stalls near or just offshore on Saturday.
Showers near the coast on Saturday will develop near the frontal
boundary and should remain light. Developing low on Sunday will
see showers spread inland, becoming intense Sunday evening as a
shortwave out of the SW bolsters the existing energy. The
combination of rain and northerly flow from high pressure to our
north will keep temperatures well below normal. A period of
heavy rain is possible Sunday night into early Monday as the low
intensifies.

A secondary shortwave will moves across the region late Monday
into Tuesday. The surface boundary will still be in place and
this impulse is expected to spark the development of a second
low pressure system. This fast-moving low will bring a brief
period of rain as dry air works into the deepening low.

Brief high pressure on Tuesday will precede another potential
cold front on Wednesday. High temperatures just below climo on
Tuesday will warm ahead of the approaching system for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Still expecting
overnight winds to keep fog formation at bay. SW winds become
more W by the afternoon with a sea breeze at coastal terminals
and calming after sunset.

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... A somewhat modest southwest flow basically
ten knots or less will increase slightly overnight to at best 15
knots or so for a few hours. With essentially a summer like
pattern in place (Bermuda High Pressure) speeds drop back once
again to around ten knots later Thursday. Significant seas will
be 2-3 feet with perhaps a few four footers.

Thursday Night through Monday... Light southerly flow continues
through the remainder of the week before variable low pressure
and a weak cold front bring variable winds on Saturday. As the
cold front shifts offshore late Saturday into Sunday and low
pressure develops along the front, winds increase to 15-20
knots. Deepening low Sunday night into Monday could see winds
increase further with seas building to around 6 feet, mainly in
the NC waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/21