Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261127 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 727 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Fair conditions today will be followed by showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight and early Friday, as a low pressure system tracks from northern Georgia to southern Virginia overnight. A stalled front inland, Friday and Saturday, will be kicked offshore by Canadian high pressure before sunrise Sunday. This will usher in a drying trend, with slight cooling Sunday and Monday, followed by warming through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 322 AM Thursday...Weak cold front moves across the area around daybreak, then stalls after moving off the coast. Surface low developing over the southeast this morning, under a 5h shortwave trough moving through the large scale 5h trough, moves east today, lifting the front back into the area as a warm front this afternoon. Forecast soundings do show some surface based instability during the day today, but weak mid-level capping may prevent any showers until the environment becomes more favorable late in the day and into the evening. Approaching shortwave this evening increases divergence aloft and provides an increase in deep moisture. Mid-level lapse rates steepen considerably late in the day with convection seeming more likely, especially across portions of SC. Timing is the biggest issue. The dynamics associated with the wave arrive very late in the day, at which time diurnal instability will have peaked and be starting to trend down. So while a few strong updrafts cannot be ruled out, mainly across inland SC, the potential for severe weather may be minimalized by the late timing. SPC continues to carry a small area of marginal in the day 1 outlook which covers most of Darlington and brushes Florence and Marlboro counties. However, confidence in this is low. Any convection that is able to persist overnight will be on the weak side and will start winding down during the early morning hours. Varying amounts of cloud cover today, increasing in the late morning and afternoon due to heating, will keep highs confined to the mid to upper 70s. Some areas across inland SC could hit 80 with an extended period of sunshine. Cloud cover coupled with modest boundary layer winds will keep lows well above climo overnight, mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 AM Thursday...`Devolving` low complex dawn Friday is over north-central NC, lifting north, swept then absorbed with a northern stream low over the Great Lakes, leaving a dangling, quasi-stationary frontal boundary waffling along the coastal interior. Despite the shallow nature of moisture in vertical profiles, lapse rates associated with the cool pool will prompt moderate cumulus Friday afternoon, possibly isolated showers, albeit low topped, capped by arid WSW aloft. This, diurnally favored around peak heating and in proximity to the surface boundary locality. Saturday setting up to be a nice sunny and warm day, with 80s in the cards, in a weak but impactful, dry, warm sector. FROPA late Saturday night, offshore prior to daybreak Sunday will have a passage without much consequence, aside from winds becoming N-NE and slightly cooler min-T heading into early Sunday, middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Cool high pressure at the surface through the remainder of the weekend. Although temperatures will be cooler than normal Sunday and Monday the weather will be quite tolerable with highs generally in the lower 70s with clear skies. A warm-up is expected by mid-week as the high moves off the coast with as return flow develops. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 12Z...VFR with cigs 3.5-10k this TAF valid period. Clouds may be scattered at times at the coastal terminals. There could be isolated showers this afternoon just inland of the coastal terminals, but have omitted mention from all TAFs attm. Showers will be more likely this evening at KFLO/KLBT and coastal terminals overnight. Winds will be light this morning becoming southeast to south by this afternoon. Extended outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 322 AM Thursday...Have allowed NC Exercise Caution headline to expire at 0300 with seas continuing to diminish. Weak cold front moves off the coast this morning then stalls just east of the waters. Front is quick to move back inland as a warm front during the day with light and variable winds in the morning becoming southeast this afternoon. Speeds stay under 10 kt into the evening before weak low approaching from the southwest slowly increases the gradient. Southerly flow increases to 10 to 15 kt overnight, becoming southwest late in the period. Seas 3 to 4 ft this morning will slowly decrease during the day, dropping to 2 to 3 ft by the afternoon. Slight increase in winds overnight will push seas back to 3 to 4 ft late in the period. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 AM Thursday...This will be a manageable marine period, with Friday the breeziest and bumpiest day, SW winds gusting between 20 and 25 kt in the afternoon inshore, aided by the sea breeze circulation enhancement. Then another gusty period Saturday night, winds veering to WSW-W, gusting to 20 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring a wind shift to north before first light of Sunday, 15 kt or less. Seas 3-4 ft this period, so no Advisories appear to be needed. Seas will be a mix of SW wind waves every 6 seconds, and SE waves swell every 9 seconds. Isolated marine showers possible Friday but drier Saturday. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...High pressure builds in from the northwest through Sunday night. The high will build over the waters during Monday. Northerly winds in the wake of the front Sunday morning. Variable flow is expected Monday as the high builds overhead. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are possible during Sunday, otherwise they will subside to around 2 ft Monday with a weak pressure gradient overhead. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR

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