-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
948
FXUS62 KILM 091046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
639 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summer time pattern will lead to daily showers and
thunderstorms through Friday, sparked by a series of shortwaves
moving across the area. A cold front Friday night will bring
much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of next
week. Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast a bit on the convoluted side for the near term.  The
pattern will be characterized by southwesterly flow at the surface
veering to westerly in the mid and upper levels. In the very near
term a line of convection will approach from the west with a
weakening trend from N to S, likely (hopefully) weakening 13-15Z.
This pattern lead to a very active afternoon of convection yesterday
that favored our NC counties over SC and today is shaping up to be
quite active as well. There should be a lull through the morning
hours due to subsidence behind the aforementioned convective line.
The atmosphere will then destabilize once again ahead of the
convective mass over TN translates eastward. Instability should
climb to the 2k-2500 J/Kg range, including a healthy amount in the
hail growth zone. SPC has the entire area in SLGHT but with lower
hail probs over NC zones. Whether or not this pans out remains to be
seen but what seems more interesting is that many forms of the WRF
don`t really love convection over much of NC at all. This may be a
vestige of yesterday`s deep overturning especially if the next line
is faster and instability doesn`t form with quite the vigor as
progged, a distinct possibility. Not really ready to cut that
diamond at this time and will advertise svr storms area-wide, albeit
with higher POPS across SC. Directional shear not too supportive of
tornados but with what will end up a rather `messy` radar
presentation this PM a few storm interactions could lead to the
stray spinup. Rain chances taper off early tonight thanks to weak
mid level ridging and subsidence behind the convection this
PM/eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC continues to highlight the area in a Marginal Risk of
severe weather (threat level 1 out of 5). The airmass overall is
certainly conducive to severe weather, however there`s a lot of
uncertainty over placement of any morning convection and the
subsequent stabilizing effect. Chances of rain Friday though
are a bit higher than today...50-55%, with both a morning
shortwave passing through then another one in the evening. Main
threats with severe storms would be damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Rain chances end during the evening with dry air
moving in following a cold fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A dry and cooler weekend is in store as the aforementioned cold
front races offshore. High temps in the mid 70s Saturday nudge
up to the upr 70s for Sunday as sfc high pressure moves
offshore. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday, and are
higher than normal for Days 6-7 (50-60% PoPs) as guidance is in
good agreement on an upr-level trough moving through the eastern
CONUS, the details of which will be fine-tuned in future
updates. Temps remain near normal, with highs averaging in the
upr 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current showers moving across the area not really depicted in much
guidance but environmentally should continue to wane in both
coverage and intensity. Then after a brief break the deeper
convection currently over TN will mov in by midday. These storms
will grow intense if not severe and lead to not only much lowered
flight categories but also strong gusty winds. Not sure which areas
have the best chance of seeing these storms but have opted to hit SC
a little harder. Precip tapers from west to east rather quickly
overnight. MVFR fog a little hard to rule out esp in places that see
the most rain today.


Extended Outlook...Threat of more widespread strong convection
with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri
ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into
the weekend with VFR dominating.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: The area remains between high pressure well
offshore and surface troughiness to the NW. This will keep the
wind out of the SW and a few gust to 25kt seem possible but not
at all with the frequency that would justify SCA headlines. The
main factor inhibiting frequent gusts it the veering with height
that will inhibit vertical momentum transfer. Later day
thunderstorms will defiantly pose the main hazard today into
early tonight.

Friday through Monday: Sub-SCA conditions continue this period.
Some uptick in the winds following a cold fropa Friday evening,
but only up to ~20 kt. Weaker westerly flow then follows
through Sunday, before winds shift to southerly for Monday as
sfc high pressure becomes established offshore. After 2-4 ft
seas Friday/Saturday, expect only up to 2 ft for Sunday/Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/MBB