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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 161955
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
355 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather
through midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a
slight chance of showers towards later in the week. Some
slightly higher relative humidity values are slated for late
week into next weekend. Rain chances may start to increase later
in the weekend, with temperatures gradually starting to fall.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak back door front resides to the north of the area as
Bermuda High Pressure continues to control the weather across
the area. There is still some guidance suggesting a few showers
and or a rumble of thunder across northern areas with the front
and maintained the slight chance pops. Otherwise a very warm
forecast remains in place with overnight lows in the lower 60s
and Wednesday`s highs perhaps just a shade lower than today with
middle 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Shortwave aloft moves through the area Wednesday night. Funny
enough, it looks stronger than it ever has the previous forecast
cycles, but there still appears to be plenty dry air below
500mb. Maybe a couple inland areas see a sprinkle or two, but
that`s it. Lows in the lower 60s.

Modest ridging builds in Thursday, allowing skies to clear out.
Highs in the upper 80s inland, lower 80s at the coast. Some
inland locales have a shot at reaching 90 degrees.

A weak cold front moves through the area Thursday night. Looks
like there is some better moisture at 850mb, but the rest of the
column looks dry. No rain chances here, just mid-level clouds.
Lows Thursday night in the low-to-mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The front stalls offshore, while better shortwave energy moves
in from the west. Southwesterly flow increases significantly,
allowing for much better moisture return. Precipitable water
values climb to the 1.25-1.50" range, allowing for some better
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to come into play by
Friday afternoon. High and low temperatures run similar to the
previous day.

Saturday, old frontal boundary offshore tries to back towards
the coast as a warm front. Meanwhile, a stronger cold front
moves through Saturday and Saturday night. Forecast initially
looks dry Saturday, with moisture lacking again in the low- and
mid-levels. Much better forcing enters the fold by Saturday
evening through Sunday night, bringing the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms we`ll see all week. Clouds knock down
the high temperatures a bit on Saturday (mid 80s inland, lower
80s at the coast). Northeasterly flow Saturday night knocks down
the lows a bit...generally the mid-to-upper 50s. Northeasterly
flow gets a bit deeper in the low-levels Sunday, allowing for
much milder highs in the lower 70s. Lows Sunday night in the
lower 50s.

Cooler high pressure comes in Monday and Tuesday, drying out
the forecast and knocking down temperatures even more. Highs in
the upper 60s Monday become the low-to-mid 70s by Tuesday. Lows
in the low-to-mid 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the period. The only
possible caveats include a few showers and or a TS associated
with a back door cold front and MVFR BR in Wilmington. Both are
low chance events and maintained the mention of BR mainly for
continuity.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Wednesday...A southerly flow will continue across the
waters for the foreseeable future. A dissipating front from the
northeast may turn the winds briefly to a more easterly direction
across northern waters but that is seemingly the only caveat to
the overall synoptic flow. Wind speeds will increase Wednesday
to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15kts
remain locked in through Friday morning, before backing a bit
more southerly through Friday afternoon. Variable wind direction
Saturday and Saturday night, before settling on northeasterly
by Sunday. Seas remain at 2-3ft through Saturday night, with a
few 4ft waves possible by Sunday.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/IGB