Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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482 FXUS62 KILM 260012 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 812 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms are expected late Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a cold front. Dry fronts are expected to move across the area Friday and again on Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for the remainder of the week and during the weekend. Return flow around departing high pressure will bring above normal temperatures beginning Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 800 PM Wednesday...Patchy stratocumulus will continue to drift across the area tonight as an upper area of low pressure continues to move N and away from the area. A weak trough was moving offshore, shifting the flow across the area to NW ahead of a ridge of surface high pressure. A secondary mid-level shortwave will be digging into the Arklatex region tonight, aiding in increasing 850-500mb moisture. This will keep some mid-level cloudiness across the Forecast Area through the night. Given light to calm winds and only patchy cloudiness, we expect low temps will be a degree or two cooler than last night and we are forecasting lows in the mid and upper 50s. On Thursday, another area of low pressure aloft approaches from the W which causes increasing diffluence, better columnar moisture, and an increasing chance for showers late. Guidance is slow with the surface reflection so expect only minimal shower chances through Thursday, but have shown low-chc near I-95 by the end of the period. Another seasonable day is forecast despite the clouds however, and highs will climb to the mid 70s, with lower 70s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Closed 500 mb low and associated surface low centered over southeast TN and northern GA Thursday evening will open up and lift across the Mid-Atlantic states through Friday. A warm front is expected to be just north of the forecast area at 00Z Friday, with the cold front poised to enter the western zones around midnight. Marginal instability in the warm sector will lead to potential for isolated thunderstorms along with the scattered to numerous showers ahead of the frontal boundary. By 12Z Friday, most of the activity will be northeast of the area, however additional light showers may develop later Friday in lingering moisture below 700 mb, ahead of an approaching 700 mb trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...The next shortwave is progged to primarily pass south of the Carolinas during Saturday morning while the main upper low translates across the eastern Great Lakes Region. Thus not much in the way of lift for our part of the Carolinas and a rather dry column through the extended supports very little in the way of POPs. A dry frontal passage Saturday night will be followed by cool high pressure at the surface through the remainder of the weekend. Although temperatures will be cooler than normal Sunday and Monday the weather will be quite tolerable with highs generally in the lower 70s with clear skies. A warm-up is expected by mid-week as the high moves off the coast with as return flow develops. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...Clouds appear to be dissipating at this time, as these waning clouds are the result of an upper low, cold air aloft, which kicks off cumulus/stratocumulus in the afternoon. Upper low will have less influence tomorrow, but still a VFR ceiling is possible. Winds becoming light after 01Z, with a southeast gradient/resultant in the afternoon on Thursday. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Sat. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory across the northern waters has been downgraded to a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline and is valid til 300 AM. There are no headlines for the southern waters. Seas up to 4 to 5 ft across the northern waters will slowly wane throughout tonight. SW to W winds will shift to N by Thu morning. NE to E winds Thu morning will veer to S during the afternoon. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the remainder of the night and on Thu in response to retreating high pressure and approaching weak low pressure. These light winds will allow seas to subside to 2 to 4 ft on Thursday. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Surface low pressure will move up the Appalachians Friday, resulting in southerly flow across the waters during the day. The magnitude of the gradient will remain modest, with winds remaining 15 kts or less. Winds will veer to the southwest during the evening with the approach of a cold front, which will move off the coast after midnight Thursday night. Not much of a wind shift will occur behind the front, although it will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will become more westerly by late Friday night as a weak surface trough approaches the coast from the west. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...A front will shift off the coast Saturday night followed by high pressure building in from the northwest through Sunday night. The high will build over the waters during Monday. Southwest winds ahead of the front Saturday will veer to a westerly direction Saturday evening, then turn northerly in the wake of the front by Sunday morning. Variable flow is expected Monday as the high builds overhead. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are possible during Sunday, otherwise they will subside to around 2 ft Monday with a weak pressure gradient overhead.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/JDW SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DL

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