Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250014 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 814 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening front oriented east to west across the area will provide a focus for storms through Friday. This weekend, low pressure will move north into the central Gulf of Mexico, and spread tropical moisture into the Carolinas. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 8 PM Thursday...Weakening front continues to linger across the area this evening and is acting as a focal point for the ribbon of convection across SC. Loss of heating has taken away the bulk of the instability, which has resulted in an overall weakening trend during the last hour or so. Convection may linger along the boundary for a few more hours but activity should be finished prior to midnight. Guidance is showing development of nocturnal marine convection, along the remains of the boundary, as the feature dissipates while drifting north. Showers may brush coastal counties, especially across NC early Fri morning. Lows will continue run above climo with most areas in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Continuation of an unsettled pattern with showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid airmass. High pressure offshore will be the dominant feature at least through Saturday night, with flow between this high and a developing area of low pressure in the GOM driving deep southerly flow and moisture laden air into the Carolinas. In a pattern that seems to be inexorably repeating itself this month, PWATs climb above 1.75 inches and tropical showers are possible through the period. Note that guidance brings a brief period of drier air into the region Saturday evening, which combined with the potential for subsidence aloft due to confluence north of the upper ventilation atop invest-90, should reduce convective coverage latter half of the period. Still, showers with isolated tstms will remain in the forecast through the short term, with highest POP and best chance for any heavy rain being across inland zones. Temps will remain well above climo, mid to upper 80s for highs Saturday, with lows remaining above 70 at the coast, upper 60s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The pattern through the extended period will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values will surge in excess of 2 inches on Sunday and for the most part, remain that way through Thursday. Similar to the several days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep southerly flow between Bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis along the Mississippi River Valley extending into the Gulf of Mexico. A contributing factor will be the northward progression of a possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system through the Gulf of Mexico. Although direct impacts from this potential tropical system are not currently expected for our forecast area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of tropical moisture across the eastern Carolinas. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Stalled out frontal boundary across the SC portion of the FA will remain a focus for showers and isolated thunder into this evening before likely dissipating altogether with the day`s insolation ending. Will have plenty of debris clouds at all levels overnight. For the overnight, MVFR/IFR possible as fog and low stratus develops, with 08Z to 12Z the window when the worse fog/stratus conditions are progged to occur. Low stratus and fog dissipate by 14Z to 15Z Fri with diurnal cu development immediately following. Have kept the threat for VCTS/VCSH for the aftn, mainly across inland terminals ie. FLO and LBT. The coastal terminals may see vcsh/vcts along the sea breeze but for the most part will push inland during the aftn. Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR/IFR in fog. Tropical moisture will be returning to the area Sun-Tue with more widespread thunderstorms with periods of IFR ceilings/visibility possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 8 PM Thursday...East to southeast flow across the waters overnight with weakening surface boundary currently across SC waters. The boundary will dissipate overnight as it slowly drifts north. Gradient remains weak with speeds 10 kt or less and seas 2 to 3 ft overnight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly winds around offshore high pressure will persist into the weekend. The gradient will remain relatively light, so wind speeds will briefly increase to 10-15 kts Saturday evening, but will otherwise be around 10 kts through the period. Seas will be formed through a combination of a deamplifying 8 sec swell and a growing 5-6 sec southerly wind wave, especially at the end of the period. This will produce significant seas of 2-3 ft Friday night and Saturday, with subtle growth to 2-4 ft Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly flow will persist across the waters Sunday into Monday night between Bermuda high pressure and a low pressure system that will be moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will depend on how much the low is able to develop in the Gulf, but the persistent southerly fetch and strengthening gradient should support winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday, and seas building to 5 to 7 feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the gradient will weaken a bit, which would allow winds to diminish to 10 to 15 knots, and seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is higher than usual at this point, however, due to the potential for the Gulf low to develop into a tropical cyclone.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...DCH

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