Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171425 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Peninsula through this evening and then offshore of the Southeast Wednesday. It will be dry this week with cool temperatures continuing today and then warming to above normal levels mid week. A cold front will move across the area Thursday night, bringing near normal temperatures late in the week and through the weekend. A frontal system will pass by to our south early next week and then may linger offshore, bringing a period of unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Tuesday...Lows this morning were chilly with most places in the 30s and a few spots as low as the lower 30s. The latest surge of dry and cool air will wane today. High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will move east, reaching the Florida Peninsula tonight before moving into the Atlantic Wed morning. Still a rather tight pressure gradient in place today with low pressure across the Northeast states and high pressure to our S. We are looking for wind gusts of around 25 mph with a few near 30 mph. 850 mb temps have bottomed out this morning and will begin their steady rise this afternoon and tonight, recovering to 10 to 12C during this time. A good deal of sunshine is expected given the dry column and we are looking for highs to reach the mid and upper 60s this afternoon with downslope westerly flow aloft. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be as low as 25 to 30 percent. A weak shortwave will skirt by to our N Wed morning and may bring a few clouds to mainly northern areas. Given we will be under the influence of warm air advection, lows tonight will not be cold like last night. We are forecasting mainly upper 40s and lower 50s. A few mid 40s will be scattered around as well. Dewpoints will recover this evening and tonight, from as low as the 20s today to the mid 40s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Very pleasant mid-Spring weather for the short term as temps climb above normal and sky conditions remain clear. Broad surface high elongated across the Atlantic and ridging back across the Gulf Coast will be the dominant feature through Thursday before a dry cold front crosses the region Thursday evening. With the high to the south and the cold front approaching from the NW, increasing warm advection on gusty SW winds will drive 850mb temps to +15C to +17C, supporting highs in the 80s away from the coastal sea breeze. PWATs only around 0.5 inches suggest abundant sunshine Wednesday, and although weak height falls occur Thursday, this creates more zonal mid-level flow which keeps the column very dry even as warm/moist advection occurs ahead of the front so the FROPA will occur dry with just some increased cloud cover. 850mb temps fall Thursday, but highs are still forecast to approach 80 away from the coast. The biggest difference between Wednesday and Thursday will be the overnight lows, as mins Wednesday night will drop only into the low 60s, while CAA behind the dry front Thursday allows temps to fall into the upper 40s, more than 30 degrees from aftn highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Cool advection should keep temperatures below climatology through the period; though temperature departures from normal will not be overly large. Perhaps more importantly we do not anticipate any frost/freeze issues. Cloud cover will increase on Monday as a slow moving cutoff upper low approaches. This system will lead to cyclogenesis over the Gulf Coast along the southern periphery of the cool surface high in place. This will be a slow mover so the entire long term now appears to be rain-free. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 12Z...High pressure centered to our south will give us westerly winds today, gusty shortly after daybreak. A weak trough will slide into the area this afternoon. Little weather will be associated with it other than a slight wind shift and some cirrus. Tonight diminishing winds with little or no fog expected. Extended outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Tuesday...The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. However, a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions are possible later this afternoon and tonight. A headline for these conditions may be issued later today. W winds will back to SW this afternoon and SW winds will persist tonight. Wind speeds will be up to near 20 kt later this afternoon and tonight. Seas will be subsiding through today before reverting higher tonight. The highest seas will be 4 to 5 ft. Additionally, water levels may drop as low as minus 1 to minus 1.5 feet MLLW with the afternoon low tide. The lowest waters levels are expected between 3 and 4 pm. Abnormally low water levels may return with the overnight low tide. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A windy period expected across the waters much of the period as high pressure to the south and a cold front approaching from the NW keep the gradient pinched locally. West winds greet Wednesday morning at 15-20 kts, but these quickly become SW and increase to 20-25 kts late Wednesday through much of Thursday. The FROPA is expected late Thursday evening, and this causes a rapid wind shift to the NW but with speeds remaining elevated. These strong winds will keep wave amplitudes high, building from 3-5 ft early Wednesday to 4-7 ft Wed night and Thursday. A slow fall will occur late in the period, but an extended period of SCA conditions is likely across all waters. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure will build in Friday into the weekend. A long period of N to NE post-frontal flow begins and no headlines expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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