Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281127 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 727 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and rain will accompany a cold front moving off the coast this morning. High pressure will bring dry and cool weather tonight through Friday. A warming trend is expected this weekend as the high moves offshore. The next chance of rain will accompany a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The surface cold front continues to slide southeastward and should be crossing the beaches no later than 6 AM. Cooler air undercutting the moist and slightly unstable airmass aloft will help sustain showers and elevated coastal thunderstorms through the morning hours. Heavy rainfall could create an isolated flooding threat, but this potential appears to be limited to southeastern North Carolina between now and about 8 AM. Isentropic upglide will end in the lower levels by mid morning within the deepening cold advection behind the front, but may linger way up on the 310K theta surface (near 600 mb or 12kft) which will maintain clouds and areas of light rain going through early to mid afternoon. Eventually the lift runs out even here with dry weather expected. The biggest forecast dilemma today concerns temperatures. There`s at least a moderate potential the sun will come out during the mid afternoon across the Pee Dee region with temperatures possibly rising 6-8 degrees off their mid morning lows. Along the coast the potential for sunshine and any substantial rise in temperature is less. My forecast highs range from the lower 60s across the Pee Dee region to 58-60 along the coast, however confidence in low. There is high confidence skies will become clear tonight after the upper trough moves offshore and deep offshore flow is established. High pressure will move eastward across the Deep South, making it as far east as Alabama by sunrise Friday. Enough of a pressure gradient should remain to keep winds from going calm across the eastern Carolinas and forecast lows are within a few degrees of 40. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Broad surface high pressure over the Deep South moves to the ESE and offshore through this period. Chamber of commerce weather on the way, with airmass modification kicking off. Skies should be mostly cloudless, sans a few cirrus clouds here and there. Highs Friday in the upper 60 near 70. Lows Friday night in the mid-to-upper 40s inland, near 50 at the coast. Surface winds out of the southwest bring in much warmer air Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s inland, lower 70s at the coast. Lows Saturday night in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Airmass modification continues with the high pressure offshore. Dry forecast continues, with widespread highs in the low-to-mid 80s expected Sunday through Tuesday. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s. Clouds increase Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system, which is due to move through sometime Wednesday. Rain chances look to return Tuesday night through Wednesday, but we`re keeping the chances rather modest for now. This front looks to knock back temperatures down a bit, but still above normal for early April. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The surface cold front is offshore and cool northerly winds are now blowing across the eastern Carolinas. Moisture overrunning the front aloft will maintain multilayered clouds and light to moderate rain, lasting through at least early afternoon along the coast. The precipitating cloud base will gradually rise to 5000 feet over the next several hours but broken low clouds in the shallow cool air below will form IFR ceilings in the 500-800 foot AGL range. These cloud ceilings should prevail through 16-18 UTC inland, and 19-21 UTC along the coast before breaking up and/or rising to MVFR. Skies should clear out totally tonight after the upper level trough zips by a few hours after sunset. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...A cold front is slipping southeastward across the coastal plain and should cross the beaches around 6 AM, making it 20 miles offshore no later than 8-10 AM this morning. Light southeasterly winds will shift to the north behind the front and then increase to 15-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through tonight for these winds plus seas which may reach 6 feet near Frying Pan Shoals this afternoon. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms should persist through the remainder of the morning hours. Heavy rain could reduce visibility below 2 miles at times. Precipitation rates should diminish by noon, with the last of the showers ending during the mid afternoon. Friday through Monday...Small Craft Advisory is due to expire at 4 AM EDT Friday morning. From there, northwesterly winds at 10-15kts back to the west by Friday afternoon, and then to the southwest by Friday night. Winds from that point will remain locked in through Monday. Seas mostly stick to 2-4ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/IGB

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