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000
FXUS62 KILM 231853
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
253 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak backdoor front will bring only minor rain chances late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build in from
the north thereafter but not really bring a cooldown. A warming
trend is then slated for the weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will shift increasingly offshore through the
period while subtle mid-level ridging is shunted away by a trough
swinging through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At this
latitude, we are expecting to see a glancing influence from this
trough with small height falls and weak warm advection ahead of its
associated cold front. With the best forcing for ascent staying to
our north and surface convergence along the front waning as it
becomes oriented increasingly parallel to the flow aloft, only
isolated showers are expected at this time from late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night as it settles southward. While some
hi-res guidance depicts a swath or two of heavier shower activity,
the majority of models keep precip sparse, so will opt to keep PoPs
on the slight-chance side for now, although this may need to be
raised in the future for the northern and western areas of our
CWA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Backdoor cold front will be sagging through the area at the start of
the period. Enough guidance is hinting at small rain chances as this
occurs and after some inter-office collab decided to introduce some
small rain chances. Dry air readily filters in behind this boundary
for a sunny Thursday that will wind up seasonable.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIgh pressure wedged in from the north seemingly can`t decide whether
it wants to retreat or not Friday. Other than the wind forecast
this will have little bearing as solar modification by the
increasingly strong sunshine will offset the weak NE winds for a
seasonably warm afternoon. The surface high finally pulls away to
the north and east over the weekend but the high aloft will be
overhead. This will lead to quiet weather and a gradual warming
trend, temperatures almost 10 degrees above climo by the end of the
period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected to dominate through the period with the main
concern being changeable wind directions away from the coast as
high pressure passes overhead early this afternoon and moves
offshore. Winds are expected to remain elevated tonight as the
pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the high, keeping
any fog at bay. An approaching cold front will bring gusty winds
tomorrow, but no cig/vis impacts are expected during the TAF
period.

Extended Outlook...There is a low probability of MVFR ceilings
Wednesday evening and night associated with the next cold
front. Passing light showers may also impact the terminals as
the front slides through. As this front stalls to our south,
early morning vis/low cig concerns increase from Thursday
morning onward.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Wednesday... With high pressure moving offshore, southerly
winds increase tonight and gradually veer through southwesterly
tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Elevated seas due to 2-4 ft easterly
10-sec swells will remain in place while an increasing south to
southwesterly wind wave component builds to 2-4 ft by late Wednesday
afternoon.

Wednesday through Sunday... A backdoor cold front pushes through at
the start of the period turning veering our SW considerably by
Thursday, by which time they will have changed 180 degrees. This
will confuse seas, steepening wave faces and likely making the wind
chop be more prevalent then the easterly swell. The post-frontal
high will remain to our north until Friday and less so Saturday
leading to more gradual veering than the early period FROPA. Winds
will be back to southerly by the period`s end.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM