Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 161909
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stalled front will dissipate tonight allowing above
normal temperatures to return Sunday. A strong cold front will
sweep through the area Monday night bringing chilly weather
through Tuesday night. Warmer weather will develop later in the
week with rain chances returning for Friday and Saturday as
Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The surface map shows low pressure across the area but
there is very little active weather associated with this feature.
Weak winds and ample low level moisture will reside across the area
this afternoon and overnight as the visible satellite imagery can
attest to. The only pops through Sunday arrive late in the day and
mainly to the south. The primary concern is the possible development
of fog, sea fog and or stratus across the area tonight that may
persist briefly into the daylight hours Sunday. Overnight lows
should show some consistency in the middle 50s. Same for Sunday`s
highs with middle 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level disturbance crossing over the southern Baja
Peninsula this afternoon will make it all the way to Georgia
and South Carolina by Sunday evening, accompanied by an increase
in clouds and a chance of showers. Models have yet to settle
into good agreement with how far north moisture will be able to
return ahead of this disturbance and uncertainty remains
unusually high for an event that will occur in only 36 hours.
Just like yesterday the 12z ECMWF remains the most aggressive
bringing showers well north of the NC/SC state line. The 12z
Canadian and especially the GFS are more suppressed with their
moisture return. I don`t have any tangible reason prefer one
model over another at this point and a blend with mid range PoPs
(30 percent Lumberton to 60 percent Georgetown & Myrtle Beach)
is probably best.

Behind this upper system, a completely separate surface cold
front will push southward through the area by daybreak Monday.
Only a minor airmass change will accompany this frontal passage
and Monday`s highs are still expected to reach well into the
60s.

Things will change quickly Monday evening as a strong cold
front, pushed southeastward by a powerful upper trough moving
through the Mid Atlantic states, moves across the Carolinas.
Forecast soundings show low level lapse rates remaining steep
through the night with 25 knot (30 mph) gusts likely to mix down.
Fortunately the wind should also keep a nocturnal inversion
from developing and temperatures should dip no lower than the
mid to upper 30s within the cold advection pattern.

The center of the Canadian high is expected to move along the
Gulf Coast Tuesday into Tuesday night. This may maintain enough
of a pressure gradient across the Carolinas to prevent winds
from dropping off to calm. Assuming this occurs, Tuesday night`s
low temps could dip no lower than the upper 30s. Small
differences in wind speed will have large implications for
temperatures and agricultural impacts and we will continue to
closely monitor forecast trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather will continue Wednesday into Thursday as Canadian
high pressure weakens to our south and a weak cold front moves
through from the north. A closed upper low over Arizona should
begin to kick eastward Wednesday night into Thursday,
approaching the Carolinas Friday. Just like in the short term,
there are fairly large differences with the intensity and timing
of this disturbance that will have impacts on late-week rain
chances here.

Surface low pressure should develop within a broad baroclinic
zone across the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night into
Friday, a good 12 hours later than was thought yesterday. Warm
advection rains out ahead of this system could reach the
Carolinas Thursday night but will become more likely on Friday.
Some models (12z GFS and Canadian) show the surface low
tracking along or very close to the coast Saturday while the
12z ECWMF is much farther offshore and slower to develop. The
ECMWF is not the preferred solution, but confidence remains
low given the shifts in timing that continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very weak pressure pattern resides across the forecast area
and somewhat plentiful moisture noting the convective field
rapidly developing this afternoon. There are some lingering MVFR
conditions in ILM in the wake of the anticipated NE boundary but
these are mixing out as we speak. Overall expect VFR conditions
to persist though the afternoon and early evening hours. I did
add IFR and MVFR late tonight along the coast as it seems sea
fog and or stratus is doable. Fog may become an issue inland
later as well noting the moisture/weak winds pressure pattern.

Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions possible again Sunday
night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...After a few gusty winds associated with the NE
boundary winds appear to have settled into the onshore/sea breeze
configuration as expected. The weakly forced flow will acquire more
definition in time overnight with a southwest flow developing. This
flow...which will persist though Sunday will see speeds of 10-15
knots. Significant seas...with little in the way of sustained fetch
will be 2-3 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...An upper level disturbance
gliding northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina could
bring us a round of showers Sunday night, mainly south of Cape
Fear. This is in advance of a cold front that will makes its way
southward and across the area early Monday morning. There won`t
be a significant surge of wind behind this initial front, but a
second much stronger front arriving Monday evening will be
accompanied by a surge of northwest winds gusting to 30 knots.
We`ll almost certainty need a Small Craft Advisory in place.
Forecast confidence is high for this surge of strong winds.

Chilly Canadian high pressure will build eastward out of the
Plains states Tuesday through Wednesday with moderate offshore
winds expected. A shift to northerly winds may occur Thursday
as a weak front drifts in from the north.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/SHK


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