Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241209 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 809 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wet and windy conditions will prevail today as a storm system impacts the region. Hazardous surf and minor coastal flooding can also be expected through tonight. Drying and warming will follow Wednesday in wake of the exiting system. Weak waves of low pressure will bring isolated showers Thursday night through Saturday, with mild, seasonable temperatures. High pressure is expected to bring dry conditions, with highs in the 70s Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 323 AM Tuesday...Stacked low over the TN Valley this morning is resulting in deep south-southeast flow and strong moisture advection across the area. Although the event was slow to develop, the ingredients for significant rain have remained in place and over the last few hours heavy rain has spread over the area. Plume of deep moisture supporting the heavy rain will continue to lift north, ahead of the occlusion. The 850 mb Theta E ridge, currently just downstream of the area, will rotate north this morning and cut off the deep moisture feed. However, until this happens strong divergence aloft coupled with increasing low level convergence will lead to a period of heavy rain, lingering along the NC coast beyond sunrise. Strong and gusty winds will start winding down along the SC coast shortly while along the NC coast the 50kt low level jet is likely to linger into the mid-morning hours before weakning. Dry slot wraps into the area during the morning as the 5h trough axis/cutoff slowly rotates toward the region. Forecast soundings this afternoon show an abundance of dry air aloft. Heights will be falling as the 5h trough axis slowly makes its way east, but confidence is not high on potential for convection from midday through early evening. Latest guidance keeps the trough axis farther west until late tonight, well after peak heating, suggesting the best diurnal activity may end up west of the forecast area. Above 10k ft this afternoon and evening RH in forecast soundings does not exceed 50% (and is mostly at or below 30%). Despite these negative factors there is limited potential for the development of deeper convection. Flow remains southerly, ensuring warm and moist boundary layer. Breaks of sun could easily push highs into the upper 70s away from the coast. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but coverage will limited. Any convection that is able to develop will quickly weaken with the loss of heating. Mid-level trough moves across the area late tonight, but the loss of diurnal instability will prevent any convection with the trough. Not much in the way of cold advection during the period despite the passage of the cold front this morning. Temperatures will be near to slightly above climo this afternoon and linger several degrees above climo overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 AM Tuesday...A cold pool aloft will be sliding ENE across central NC daybreak Wednesday, associated lapse rates and partial late April sunshine should help blossom daytime showers, mainly across NC. Meanwhile, a snap-back to zonal flow through afternoon may aid bringing maximums right to average for the season, upper 70s. Thursday fair and quiet, until an amplified smaller scale trough pivots NE over our interior late Thursday night. Although timing is coincident with diurnal cooling, mid-level lapse rates will sharpen, and an isolated TSTM cannot be ruled out near the I-95 corridor, where the instability aloft will be highest. The surfzone still recovering, may carry strong rip currents through the day Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Another area of low pressure may bring showers to the area Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, the long term looks dry with temperatures near or slightly below seasonal normals. Normals for this time of year run mid to upper 70s by day and mid 50s overnight. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...Surface low near Brunswick county with parent upper low well to the west. Most of the convection has moved east of the Myrtles and FLO, however could not rule out a shower or two over the next couple of hours. Things could get interesting later this morning as some cape will be generate. Could see a brief thunderstorm at ILM around 17Z. By mid afternoon, most of the activity will have moved northeast and into Morehead`s area. Ceilings will gradually improve and become scattered by early evening. Overnight, some fog is possible after midnight, however confidence is rather low. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Fri night. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 323 AM Tuesday...Gale warnings remain in effect for all zones, although gale conditions should be subsiding across SC waters during the next few hours. Low level jet will start to weaken as the precip shield slowly shifts north, which should lead to rapidly decreasing wind speeds. Flow will remain out of the south today, becoming southwest this evening and overnight. Weakening gradient will allow wind speeds to drop under 20 kt by late morning and down to 10 to 15 kt for the evening and overnight period. Double digit seas this morning will start to subside as winds veer to southerly and weaken. Seas are likely to remain above 6 ft for much, if not all, of the day and a Small Craft Advisory is likely to be raised as the Gale Warning is cancelled from south to north during the mid to late morning hours. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 AM Tuesday...A recovering ocean after being roughed up considerably, may require the SCA extend into portions of Wednesday, although winds should hold at 20 kt or less, from the SW ahead of a surface front. The front will bring a wind-shift to N 10-15 kt early on Thursday. No TSTMS expected this period but a few marine showers possible. Aside from the SW wind- waves, a diminishing SE swell of 9-11 seconds will prevail in wake of the recent storm. Thursday shaping up to be a decent marine day, in light wind, and subsiding seas. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...SW winds on Friday. Speeds currently look to run about 15 KT, becoming W Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III/JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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