Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241930 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weakening front oriented east to west across the area will provide a focus for storms through Friday. This weekend, low pressure will move north into the central Gulf of Mexico, and spread tropical moisture into the Carolinas. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 315 PM Thursday...Significant and hazardous convection will mostly shift S and W of the forecast area coincident with the best low level convergence. Isolated convection will linger over SE NC and NE SC into late afternoon, or even the early evening, but diminishing trends expected as low-level cooling spreads deeper inland and diurnal cooling sets in. The ocean may become more active aft 6z as diurnal buoyancy increases and isolated convection may impinge the coast and Cape Fear near or prior to daybreak. Because of the surface boundary across roughly the Santee River of NE SC, and that it may lift a bit north overnight, have kept mentionable shower chances intact for the overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Continuation of an unsettled pattern with showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid airmass. High pressure offshore will be the dominant feature at least through Saturday night, with flow between this high and a developing area of low pressure in the GOM driving deep southerly flow and moisture laden air into the Carolinas. In a pattern that seems to be inexorably repeating itself this month, PWATs climb above 1.75 inches and tropical showers are possible through the period. Note that guidance brings a brief period of drier air into the region Saturday evening, which combined with the potential for subsidence aloft due to confluence north of the upper ventilation atop invest-90, should reduce convective coverage latter half of the period. Still, showers with isolated tstms will remain in the forecast through the short term, with highest POP and best chance for any heavy rain being across inland zones. Temps will remain well above climo, mid to upper 80s for highs Saturday, with lows remaining above 70 at the coast, upper 60s well inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...The pattern through the extended period will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values will surge in excess of 2 inches on Sunday and for the most part, remain that way through Thursday. Similar to the several days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep southerly flow between Bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis along the Mississippi River Valley extending into the Gulf of Mexico. A contributing factor will be the northward progression of a possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system through the Gulf of Mexico. Although direct impacts from this potential tropical system are not currently expected for our forecast area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of tropical moisture across the eastern Carolinas.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 17Z...A cold front will move S across the southern terminals this afternoon. Showers have become isolated from KLBT to KILM. Despite a possible tempo shower this afternoon, best confidence at KLBT, expect VFR these terminals through the afternoon with NE-E winds. At the southern terminals the best shower/thunderstorm development should be from KMYR to S of KFLO. By mid afternoon all activity should be well S of the southern terminals. Will maintain VFR/VCSH through early afternoon at the southern terminals, and will include VCTS/sub-VFR only if radar at issuance time indicates an immediate threat. Overnight, IFR possible as fog develops. Densest fog most likely at KFLO where humidities will be highest. The remaining terminals should be worse case MVFR. VFR Friday morning except KFLO which my not reach VFR until around 14Z. Winds will be SE. Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR/IFR in fog. Tropical moisture will be returning to the area Sun-Tue with more widespread thunderstorms with periods of IFR ceilings/visibility possible. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 PM Thursday...Generally an E wind overnight, but may fluctuate ESE to ENE due to proximity of a weak frontal boundary near by in a meandering mode. Winds however should remain capped at about 15 kt and no advisory or headline needed. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of SE waves every 8 seconds and light to moderate chop. A radar update is advisable if venturing out, as several TSTMS will roam about late tonight into early Friday. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly winds around offshore high pressure will persist into the weekend. The gradient will remain relatively light, so wind speeds will briefly increase to 10-15 kts Saturday evening, but will otherwise be around 10 kts through the period. Seas will be formed through a combination of a deamplifying 8 sec swell and a growing 5-6 sec southerly wind wave, especially at the end of the period. This will produce significant seas of 2-3 ft Friday night and Saturday, with subtle growth to 2-4 ft Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly flow will persist across the waters Sunday into Monday night between Bermuda high pressure and a low pressure system that will be moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will depend on how much the low is able to develop in the Gulf, but the persistent southerly fetch and strengthening gradient should support winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday, and seas building to 5 to 7 feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the gradient will weaken a bit, which would allow winds to diminish to 10 to 15 knots, and seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is higher than usual at this point, however, due to the potential for the Gulf low to develop into a tropical cyclone.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...MRR

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