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000
FXUS62 KILM 152342
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
742 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather
through midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a
slight chance of showers towards later in the week. Rain chances
may start to increase later in the weekend, with temperatures
gradually starting to fall.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Forecast on track for a warm and quiet evening. Latest high res
models show a weak backdoor cold front reaching down into the
northern portion of our area helping to veer winds briefly to
the W-NW through the morning hours before lifting back north
shifting winds back to the south by Tues aftn. Any clouds and
convection with this front will remain north, but may see some
higher clouds passing overhead on Tues. Aviation discussion
updated for 00z TAFs.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Other than the notable warmth quiet weather is expected through
the period. Temperatures this afternoon have been running some
10 degrees above normal and very similar values are in the
offering tomorrow. This is in response to surface high pressure
off the coast and mid level ridging just to our west. The former
providing the warmth in the low levels while the latter keeps
the column extremely dry. For the same reasons tonight`s lows
will have similarly warm deviations from climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast continues, with the offshore high pressure and
Gulf ridging maintaining an influence on the area. Biggest thing
to note is an increase in cloud cover this period, due to a
weak cold front approaching from the west. Low levels still
appear to be dry enough so as to not produce much rain. A couple
sprinkles are possible Wednesday night at best. Highs Wednesday
in the low-to-mid 80s inland, upper 70s at the coast. Lows each
night in the low-to-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak cold front moves through the area Thursday and Thursday
night, which still appears to bring more cloud cover than rain
chances. This front stalls offshore, before getting pushed back
northward by Saturday as a warm front, which may actually bring
some better rain chances to the area. By Sunday, a slightly
stronger cold front moves through the area, bringing the best
chances we`ve seen all week. High pressure looks to take over by
the start of next week.

Widespread 80s Thursday and Friday, with a few spots possibly
hitting 90. Mid 80s Saturday, before clouds and rain knock down
the highs into the mid 70s. Highs next Monday only in the upper
60s. Lows in the lower 60s Thursday through Saturday nights.
Lows in the lower 50s Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR with clear skies and no fog tonight. Wind speed will
diminish through late this evening, after 02-03z, leaving SW
winds under 10 kts overnight. A backdoor cold front will drop
down from the north and will act to briefly veer winds around
to a W-NW direction affecting mainly LBT and ILM terminals
between 11z and 16z, but will remain light. FLO, CRE and MYR
should also veer toward the west in the morning hours. Any
clouds and convection with this front will remain north, but may
see some higher clouds passing overhead on Tues. Winds at all
terminals will come back around to the south after 17z as front
lifts back north and southerly flow dominates. Coastal terminals
may see some healthy gusts as temps warm into the 80s and sea
breeze develops Tues afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...First day of wave detail being in the CWF!
High pressure centered well offshore but with a ridge axis
extending west into the Carolinas. This will keep the southerly
component dominant, though a drifting of the ridge axis can lead
to changes from SW to SE. Wind waves out of the south will
combine with a SE swell coming around the western periphery of
the high.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15kts
linger through Thursday, with 2-3ft seas expected. A weak cold
front moves through Thursday night before stalling over the area
Friday, which initially creates more westerly winds, but then
the direction varies throughout the day Friday. Southerly winds
lock in by late Friday night through Saturday. Seas remain at
2-3ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/IGB