-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
085
FXUS62 KILM 250050
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
850 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure will move across the area this evening bringing
a few showers to the Cape Fear area and offshore. An upper-
level low will produce showers on Wednesday. A weak cold front
early Thursday and again Saturday will bring a chance for more
showers. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week
and into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 830 PM Tuesday...Surface low was drifting N across the
I-95 corridor this eve. a complex frontal system was lifting N
with this low. A band of showers has redeveloped along and just
ahead of this front and will lift N this eve and into the
overnight. The brunt of these showers will remain offshore, but
isolated to scattered showers will skirt Pender and New Hanover
counties through mid and late eve.

The ground is very moist after 1-3" of rain, and if winds were
light would expect a good deal of fog development overnight.
However, winds are forecast to remain 5-8 mph for a good portion
of the night and this should limit the potential for significant
fog. In fact, soundings/MOS favor late night stratus and have
increased the cloud cover toward morning. Lows tonight will be
55 to 60 as winds are not expected to completely decouple and
developing stratus is expected to retard nocturnal cooling.

On Wednesday, the upper low will finally shift overhead, and
although the column will be drier, steepening lapse rates and
good surface heating will provide the impetus for cumulus and
showers Wednesday aftn. Guidance is highly variable in this
solution, but expect at least some showers across mostly NC
zones and have added low chc/schc for POP. Do not expect
thunder on Wednesday. Highs will climb into the low/mid 70s, and
have kept these values slightly below guidance due to expected
cloud cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 PM Tuesday...As the short term forecast begins the
first of the short waves/mid-level lows in the larger scale
trough begins to pull away from the region. The second short
wave will rotate around inside the larger trough and remain to
the northwest of the forecast area on Thursday evening and
overnight. The deep moisture is limited, but their is a small
window where moisture does increase. There is a chance of
showers Thursday night, but rainfall amounts should be less
than a tenth of an inch closer to the coast and up to a quarter
of an inch farther inland.

Low temps will range from the middle to upper 50s Wednesday
night and Thursday night. High temps will be in the middle 70s
on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 PM Tuesday...The third mid-level shortwave, which
will be stronger than the wave Thursday night, will be the
last in the series to cross the region. The deepening trough
will cross the Carolinas late Friday night and exit the coast
late Saturday. After this short-wave trough clears the larger
scale trough will shift east of the United States and ridging
will become established. Warmer temperatures are on the
horizon with lower 80s by Tue. The best chance of showers will
be Saturday evening with a chance of showers and maybe a rumble
of thunder.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 00Z...Surface low pressure centered near CLT will lift NNE
to off the VA coast by 00Z Thu. Winds will veer to SW overnight,
and residual moisture and light winds should lead to MVFR ceilings
late tonight inland. A surface trough will reach the coast by 21Z
Wednesday, and may be accompanied by a few showers, but given
expected isolated nature, have opted to omit from forecast for now.
Otherwise, the passage of the trough will result in WNW winds by
Wednesday afternoon.

Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Sat. Otherwise
VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...Weak low pressure was lifting N across
the Carolinas tonight, dragging its accompanying frontal system
across the waters. A few showers have developed across the
northern waters, along and ahead of these features and we do
expect scattered showers across the northern waters into mid and
late eve.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 12z Wed across
the southern waters and through 22z Wed across the northern
waters. Seas this eve were still 7 ft at the inner Cape Fear
buoys and near 10 ft at Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Seas have
subsided from their peak earlier today and this trend will
continue. However, the trend may be slower than normal given the
10-11 second SE swell. At this time, we are forecasting seas to
drop below 6 ft across the southern waters during the late night
and early morning hours, but perhaps not til Wed afternoon across
the northern waters.

The wind direction will remain from the SW through Wed. Wind
speeds will be mainly 10 to around 15 kt.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...unsettle weather will occur as a second
front moves off the coast Thursday night and weak surface low
moves up the coast. Winds are expected to stay below small craft
conditions through this period with southwest winds of 15 knots
Wednesday night then veering to the northeast at 10 knots on
Thursday and then back to the the southwest at 15 knots late
Thursday. Seas will be falling from 3 to 5 feet Wednesday
evening to 2 to 3 feet by Thursday and increasing to 3 to 4 feet
again ahead of the front on Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...Another front will cross the coast on
Friday and winds are expect to veer from SW winds to NW winds on
Friday night. High pressure will build over the waters and
winds and seas are expected to be at or below 15 knots and no
advisories are expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/JDW
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...CRM