Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151502 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1102 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There is an elevated risk for severe thunderstorms moving from west to east across the eastern Carolinas late today and tonight. In the wake of a cold front, dry and cooler weather is expected Monday. As high pressure to our south moves offshore Tuesday, temperatures will warm with above normal temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move across the area Thursday night. High pressure will follow Friday and Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Sunday...There is an Elevated Risk for Severe Weather across all of northeast South Carolina and for most of southeast North Carolina. The primary risk continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds. However, there also remains a smaller risk for tornadoes and large hail. The mid to upper trough will become negatively tilted as it moves east with strong upper level support. Strong upward vertical motion with sharp mid-level cooling and diurnal heating will help to destabilize the atmosphere. Showers continue to stream N across the eastern third or so of the Forecast Area this morning. A few showers may also develop further W this morning and through early this afternoon. The severe weather threat is late day and this eve across the Interstate 95 corridor and points west in association with a bowing squall line. This squall line will continue to move east across the remainder of the area, moving offshore within an hour or two either side of midnight. Given the storm 0-6 km storm motion, individual cells will be moving to the N at more than 50 mph. Sounding data shows moisture and instability increasing through the afternoon hours in warm air mass ahead of the cold front with mixed layer CAPE around 1100 J/kg and precipitable water values around 1.80 inches. At the same time a low level jet of around 60 kt within 2 kft of the surface impinges on the area. The wind profile does veer slightly from the surface through 5 kft, from SSE to SSW. The model profile is supportive of primarily a damaging wind threat. Discrete cells that develop just ahead of the squall line will have the potential to produce a tornado. Wet bulb zero heights of near 10 kft also support large hail in the strongest updrafts. Deep moisture with a Gulf of Mexico tap will produce very high rainfall rates. This suggests ponding water in low spots will be quite common. At this time, we are forecasting near 1 inch to 2 inches of rain across the area. However, we fully expect that some locations will tally more than 2 inches and isolated 3 inch amounts are certainly possible. Plenty of cool and dry air will advect in from WSW to ENE behind the front between midnight and sunrise Monday. The column dries out quickly with precipitable water values dropping to less than a half inch by 12z Mon. Temps will drop down into the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...a strong cold front will be well east of the area when Monday begins. The sky cover will be decreasing at the onset with scattered clouds expected as a west to southwest wind blows through out the period. In the upper levels the large upper level low over Ohio will shift to Newfoundland by Tuesday night. The moisture profile shows only a thin layer of moisture from 3000 to 5000 ft from Monday Morning to Monday. Tuesday and Tuesday night look clear. No rain is expected this period with humidities on Monday afternoon dropping into the 30% range and slightly drier on Tuesday afternoon. With a downslope flow and cold air advection high temperatures on Monday will reach the middle 60s but highs will rebound some on Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to middle 70s. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to fall into the lower to middle 40s with some upper 30s in colder locations north of a line from Burgaw, NC to Florence, SC. Lows are expected to rebound into the low to middle 50s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...high pressure will give way to a quick moving front that will cross the waters late on thursday. Southwest winds will increase from 15 knots early Wednesday and increase to 20 to 25 knots late Wednesday night and will shift to the west to northwest late Thursday. A small craft advisory will be possible later Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12Z...IFR likely through 14Z inland terminals. At the coastal terminals tempo IFR possible, but mostly tempo MVFR with SHRA through 14Z. Afterwards, MVFR/VCSH all terminals becoming VFR with shower coverage decreasing late morning into early afternoon. Winds will increase by mid morning and become gusty from the south. VFR this afternoon/isolated SHRA, until line of thunderstorms approach from the west late afternoon KFLO/KLBT and coastal terminals early evening. Line of storms should move quickly and only brief IFR expected. VFR developing during the evening with mostly southwest winds. Extended outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Sunday...Small Craft Advisory in effect with severe thunderstorms expected tonight, especially later this eve and into the first portion of the overnight hours. Showers early in the day will be scattered. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to reach the waters this eve. The thunderstorms will end with the passage of a cold front toward Mon morning. Gradient winds will increase up to 25 to 30 kt, the strongest winds are expected this eve. Winds will decrease 20 to 25 kt by Mon morning as S winds veer to SW and then W behind the cold front. Seas will build to 7 to 11 ft, highest this eve and into the overnight before beginning a slow recession on offshore winds. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...a strong cold front will have shifted east of the coastal waters by the beginning of the period. Winds are expected to remain southwest to northwest during the period and speeds will exceed small craft values through Monday night and are expected to drop to 15 knots on Tuesday and final to 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday night. Seas are expected to be around 6 to 9 feet early morning and drop below 6 feet Monday night with the offshore flow. A small craft advisory will continue until overnight Monday. With the strong offshore winds low tides are expected to fall at or below 1 foot below normal. The lowest values appear to be overnight Monday. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Sunday...high pressure will give way to a quick moving front that will cross the waters late on thursday. Southwest winds will increase from 15 knots early Wednesday and increase to 20 to 25 knots late Wednesday night and will shift to the west to northwest late Thursday. A small craft advisory will be possible later Wednesday into Thursday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/RGZ SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR

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