Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 271930 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong storm system will produce moderate to heavy rain late today through early Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in Thursday night with a warming trend and dry weather through the weekend. Another frontal system approaches early next week, bringing the next chance for rain late on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front parked just west of I-95 will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening. Radar currently shows light showers developing along this boundary (as of 3 PM EDT). Elevated instability will bring the potential for small hail and heavy rain as these showers mature and lift becomes more organized. For a brief period late this afternoon and early this evening, low level lapse rates could improve enough to bring gusty winds to the surface in stronger showers and storms. A wind gust up to 30-40 mph is possible. The cold front will start to drift eastward late this evening and overnight. The axis of heavy rain will follow the surface front from west to east. Minor flooding is possible where showers or thunderstorms develop into a training line of heavier rain. This is not expected to be a widespread hazard although reduced visibilities and ponding on roadways could impact travel. Small hail may also be observed in stronger updrafts. Instability shifts eastward with the surface front on Thursday morning with lingering showers and storms possible along the coast. Showers become lighter in intensity as dry air infiltrates aloft by early morning, working its way from west to east with the front. Light showers may persist into the early afternoon along the coast, mainly in southeastern NC. Breezy on Thursday behind the front. Boundary layer momentum transfer may exceed 35 mph in a few spots during the afternoon. Higher winds will likely be along the coast and in southeastern NC with the best gradient. Wet soils and strong winds could lead to some isolated power outages and downed trees. Cool with highs around 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain should be over by the start of the period (00Z/29) with the shortwave trough axis passing overhead and moving offshore around or shortly after 00Z. The passage of this trough axis will lead to increasing subsidence while low-level moisture scours out during the overnight. Decreasing sky cover and cold/dry advection via NW winds will modulate low temperatures, with mainly low 40s expected, although some upper 30s cannot be ruled out in normally cooler spots such as sheltered locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered over the northern Gulf Coast will shift off the southeast US coast on Friday night and take up a position north of the Bahamas for the weekend. This will set up a warm southwesterly low-level flow over the weekend which will combine with rising 1000-500mb thicknesses and mainly sunny skies to bring a substantial warming trend to the region. Highs are expected to rise from around 70F on Friday to around 80F on Sunday while lows rise from the 40s on Friday night to near 60F on Sunday night. A subtle mid-level ridge axis will shift across the area over Monday night into early Tuesday, with the warmest temperatures of the period expected on Monday (low 80s), although thick high-level clouds are expected to spill into the area and limit heating on Monday and Tuesday. After another abnormally warm day on Tuesday, rain chances return for Tuesday night and Wednesday as shortwave energy and an associated cold front approaches. Confidence is low on the timing and evolution of this mid-level energy, which will determine the duration and intensity of any rain it brings. With the main troughing staying to our north, the typical expectation is for a decaying band of showers to accompany the front. However, if a frontal wave develops along the front, this could enhance precipitation totals. Given this is near the end of the period, there is plenty of time for guidance to come into better agreement in the coming days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR in warm advective flow along the coast and most of our inland areas east of I-95. Other than some passing showers which will bring MVFR, expect this to continue into this evening. Inland, MVFR seems to be dominant near the leader edge of a stalled cold front near I-95. As this front creeps eastward this evening, MVFR will gradually worsen to IFR behind the front. Heavy rain and elevated instability will lower VIS at all sites, progressing from west to east this evening and after midnight. LIFR in heavy rain behind the front will improve slightly after sunrise tomorrow morning although heavy rain may continue through mid morning. Winds out of the SE this afternoon and this evening will be gusty before turning light and variable during the front`s passage, becoming northerly behind the front. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely into Thursday with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out Thursday night and high pressure returns throughout the weekend, allowing for widespread VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through Thursday... Southeasterly winds this evening will gradually increase and become southerly as a surface cold front to the west drifts eastward overnight. The gradient maximizes behind the cold front early Thursday. Cold air advection over the waters will bring gusts to SCA thresholds with all waters seeing sub-Gale gusts by mid morning. Winds peak during the mid afternoon and gradually improve tomorrow evening. Given the short burst of winds and limited fetch, steep seas peak on Thursday around 4-6 feet. Thursday night through Monday... Weakening offshore flow behind a cold front will contribute to subsiding seas early in the period, with waves expected to fall below 6 feet in the NC waters around midnight Thursday night. With broad high pressure shifting to our south on Friday, winds will back to westerly on Friday and then to southwesterly Friday night and remain southwesterly through Monday. A somewhat tighter pressure gradient due to a storm system passing well to our north may lead to SCA-level wind gusts late on Saturday into Saturday night, but this would be a marginal SCA at worst. With high pressure centered north of the Bahamas through the period, wave heights will remain in the 2-4 ft range, with southwesterly wind waves being the primary contributor to the wave spectrum.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...21 MARINE...21/ABW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.