Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS52 KILM 250822
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
422 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A weak front will slowly dissipate across the area today as the Bermuda
ridge remains in place. The Bermuda ridge will weaken further Saturday
as it shifts further south and east. Low pressure moving slowly north
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico should be very near the
northern Gulf Coast late Sunday night and Monday morning. This system
will likely take on tropical characteristics and if named would be called
Alberto. Deep and persistent tropical moisture will bring widespread heavy
rainfall across the eastern Carolinas later in the holiday weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
through Thursday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate.

NCZ105>110-260030-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
422 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        20           30           40
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   2            3            3
Min/Max Temp          85           68           86
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  5         S  5         S  5
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  7        SW  4        S 11
Precip amount         0.04         0.05         0.06
Precip duration       1            1            2
Inversion             76/0900      2100         76/0900
Dispersion                         Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        54           100          56
DSI                   2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   4200                      4230
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 12                     SW 21
Ventilation rate      50400                     88830
ADI early             26 Fair      27 Fair      32 Fair
ADI late              33 Fair      3 Very poor  56 Gen good
Max LVORI early       7            6            9
Max LVORI late        2            10           2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
96 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. South
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 80 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 76 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 74 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-099-260030-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
422 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        30           20           40
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            2            3
Min/Max Temp          86           68           87
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  5         S  6         S  5
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  7        S  4         S 10
Precip amount         0.05         0.02         0.08
Precip duration       1            1            2
Inversion             74/0900      2100         75/0900
Dispersion                         Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        53           100          52
DSI                   3                         3
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   4370                      4970
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 12                     S 16
Ventilation rate      52440                     79520
ADI early             22 Fair      29 Fair      24 Fair
ADI late              32 Fair      3 Very poor  49 Gen good
Max LVORI early       9            5            9
Max LVORI late        2            9            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
98 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Chance of precipitation 30 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 74 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 67 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ054>056-058-059-260030-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach,
Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet,
Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor
422 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           30           40
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3
Min/Max Temp          85           68           86
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  4         S  7         S  6
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  8        S  4         S 11 G20
Precip amount         0.06         0.07         0.08
Precip duration       2            1            2
Inversion             76/0900      2100         77/0900
Dispersion                         Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        60           100          56
DSI                   2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3910                      4390
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  9                     S 20
Ventilation rate      35190                     87800
ADI early             9 poor       29 Fair      25 Fair
ADI late              29 Fair      4 Very poor  54 Gen good
Max LVORI early       9            6            9
Max LVORI late        3            9            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
96 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 78 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 74 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-260030-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
422 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        50           30           50
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3
Min/Max Temp          86           68           88
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  4         S  6         S  6
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  6        S  4         S 10
Precip amount         0.07         0.05         0.11
Precip duration       2            1            2
Inversion             74/0900      2100         75/0900
Dispersion                         Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        55           100          49
DSI                   3                         3
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   4430                      5080
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  8                     S 14
Ventilation rate      35440                     71120
ADI early             11 poor      27 Fair      22 Fair
ADI late              26 Fair      4 Very poor  46 Gen good
Max LVORI early       10           6            9
Max LVORI late        3            9            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
98 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70.
Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

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