Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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119
FNUS52 KILM 231843
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
243 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front approaching from the north will produce a
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
The front will dissipate over the area on Friday. Low pressure
developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring tropical moisture
northward and help fuel a higher probability of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain across the eastern Carolinas Sunday
and into early next week.

Fog potential for tonight...moderate inland to low at the coast.

NCZ105>110-241045-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
243 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud amount          MCldy        PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           40           30           20
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            2
Min/Max Temp          69           83           65           84
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  6        N  3         E  5         E  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  6         E  3         SE  6
Precip amount         0.08         0.00         0.01         0.02
Precip duration       5            2            1            1
Inversion             2100         75/0900      2100         77/1000
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        97           57           95           56
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4680                      4910
Transport wnd (mph)                E 14                      SE 12
Ventilation rate                   65520                     58920
ADI early             27 Fair      31 Fair      40 Fair      32 Fair
ADI late              2 Very poor  49 Gen good  2 Very poor  33 Fair
Max LVORI early       6            8            5            7
Max LVORI late        9            2            7            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 98 percent. South
winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 93 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 73 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 80 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-099-241045-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
243 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud amount          MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        60           50           30           30
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            3            3            3
Min/Max Temp          68           84           65           85
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  4        N  3         SE  4        E  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  7         LGT/VAR      SE  5
Precip amount         0.15         0.02         0.02         0.02
Precip duration       5            2            1            1
Inversion             2100         74/0900      2100         76/1000
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        98           57           96           53
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5160                      4870
Transport wnd (mph)                SE 15                     SE  9
Ventilation rate                   77400                     43830
ADI early             30 Fair      35 Fair      44 Gen good  26 Fair
ADI late              1 Very poor  48 Gen good  2 Very poor  34 Fair
Max LVORI early       6            10           5            8
Max LVORI late        10           2            7            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 96 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent. South
winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 72 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ054>056-058-059-241045-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach,
Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet,
Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor
243 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud amount          PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        30           60           40           40
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            4            3            3
Min/Max Temp          67           83           66           84
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    S  6         LGT/VAR      E  5         E  4
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  7         E  3         SE  7
Precip amount         0.07         0.17         0.11         0.05
Precip duration       1            2            2            2
Inversion             2100         74/0900      2100         77/1000
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        100          65           99           61
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4490                      4790
Transport wnd (mph)                SE 13                     SE 12
Ventilation rate                   58370                     57480
ADI early             20 Gen poor  11 poor      35 Fair      24 Fair
ADI late              2 Very poor  38 Fair      2 Very poor  37 Fair
Max LVORI early       6            10           6            9
Max LVORI late        10           3            9            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 68 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 94 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 77 percent.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 79 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 77 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 73 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-241045-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
243 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud amount          MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        50           70           40           50
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            4            3            3
Min/Max Temp          68           84           66           85
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  4        LGT/VAR      SE  5        E  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  6         E  3         SE  6
Precip amount         0.07         0.23         0.11         0.07
Precip duration       3            3            2            2
Inversion             2100         74/0900      2100         75/1000
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        100          59           99           56
DSI                                2                         3
Haines Index          3            3            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5070                      5330
Transport wnd (mph)                SE 14                     SE  9
Ventilation rate                   70980                     47970
ADI early             27 Fair      21 Fair      45 Gen good  24 Fair
ADI late              2 Very poor  46 Gen good  2 Very poor  37 Fair
Max LVORI early       6            10           6            9
Max LVORI late        10           3            9            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 72 percent.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
around 70. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 76 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

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