Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will push east across Kentucky and Tennessee today. High pressure will move back into the area on Sunday and Monday, before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the region on Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Went ahead and cancelled the rest of the Winter Weather Advisory as the significant winter pcpn has lifted north of the region. Followed it with an SPS, for lingering isolated slick spots. Ground and roads temperatures seemed to limit the coverage of the icing. Additional light rain showers will still be possible today as the H5 s/w and sfc low slip se from Illinois into Kentucky. East to northeast winds, combining with abundant cloud cover, will keep temperatures well below normal. Temperatures will only make it to the upper 30s in the north and the lower 40s for the southern counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight, much drier air will begin to work into the area with PWATs forecast to fall to around a tenth of an inch (or below the tenth percentile for this time of year). During the day Sunday beautiful weather is in the forecast with clear skies and near calm winds as surface high pressure settles overhead. 850 MB temperatures are forecast to be around or slightly above zero degrees C. This will equate to high temperatures in the mid 50s, on average, across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weakening mid level short wave will move out of the Plains Sunday night and across the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys Monday into Tuesday. This will allow for an associated surface low to push east across the Tennessee Valley and gradually weaken through Tuesday. Initially the models are in decent agreement with the evolution of this system although the 00Z ECMWF remains somewhat farther south with the track of the low and thus the northern extent of the pcpn shield Monday into Tuesday compared to the GFS/NAM/CMC. This is the second run in a row that the ECMWF has been farther south so have allowed for a slight southward adjustment in the pops. Thermal fields suggest mainly rain with this initial wave. However, it does look like we will cool off enough across about the northern third of our area to allow for a transition to a wintery mix later Monday night into Tuesday morning, depending on how far north the precipitation makes it. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s across the south. Some cooler air will begin to be pulled in on the backside of the low later Monday night and Tuesday, leading to highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The surface low will will eventually evolve into more of an inverted trough nosing up into our area through Wednesday as the mid and upper level energy shifts off to the East Coast. However, there remains quite a bit of difference between the 00Z ECMWF with this and the remaining suite of models. The ECMWF remains much weaker and farther southeast although it appears the CMC and to a lesser extent, the GFS have also trended somewhat weaker and more southeast. As a result, will trim back pops a bit for Tuesday night into Wednesday night and allow for more of a southeast shift. Ptype will remain an issue depending on how much cooler air gets pulled down into the area. For now, will allow for a rain/snow mix in the south to mainly snow in the north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for Thursday with highs mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range. As the high moves east, high temperatures by Friday will moderate into the mid to upper 40s. A warm front lifting up from the southwest could lead to a chance of rain late in the day on Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sfc low in wrn Kentucky will continue to drop se this afternoon. It will be followed quickly by a H5 s/w. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms developed around CVG and has already moved e, but expect additional showers to develop this afternoon as the lift associated with the s/w moves across the region. As this time, don`t expect anymore thunder. Will carry a VCSH at all tafs to cover the chance of showers. IFR ceilings at CVG will begin to rise, as the afternoon progresses. Expect them to reach MVFR around 22Z. MVFR cigs at LUK and ILN will linger through the afternoon, while the northern tafs should experience VFR cigs. After the s/w passes by, clearing will begin to work north to south through the tafs. CMH/LCK will be the first to clear, around 04Z. For the srn tafs, it won`t be until 08-09Z before the clearing lines reaches them. Ceilings could jump to VFR an hour or so before the clouds scatter. High pressure will provide VFR conditions for Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Monday night through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Novak/Sites SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.