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316
FXUS61 KILN 190229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1029 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected for Sunday and Monday, with a chance of showers and
storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance
for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night,
with slightly cooler conditions for the second half of the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the overnight hours, mostly clear skies and light to calm
winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of
fog, but most of this should be relegated to the river valleys.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area
Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions.
A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in
the mid 80s.

The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area
from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into
areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few
mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60
to 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday
and Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move
through Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the
potential for severe weather on Wednesday. There is still some
uncertainty with the strength of this system and timing. Due to
this, held off on adding to the HWO at this time until more
details are resolved.

After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be
in place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. There is
still model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on
whether a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there
will be a surge in moisture from the south. Continued to limit
precipitation chances to the chance category until models come
more in line.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak mid level disturbance over east central Ohio will drift
slowly south overnight. Diurnal instability and weak lift has
resulted in isolated convection east of the KCMH/KLCK terminals.
Precipitation should weaken and dissipate after sunset as the
airmass stabilizes.

For the overnight period, mostly clear skies and light to calm
winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of fog
developing after 06Z Sunday. However, most of this will be
relegated to river valleys. That`s where IFR or lower conditions
could occur, such as at KLUK.

On Sunday, mid level ridging will build northeast across our
region. Fog should lift between 12Z and 14Z. Some FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds can then be expected to develop around 16Z. Winds
will become north to northeast around 5 knots. A weak front
dropping southeast into the central Great Lakes should stay
mainly northwest of our forecast area.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman