Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 210954 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 554 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop today in the warm and humid airmass ahead of low pressure centered to the west. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday when the low is forecast to travel to the Great Lakes. Look for dry weather to arrive with high pressure Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface analysis has low pressure centered over Missouri, with a warm front extending across Northern Kentucky. Dew points in the mid 60s evident along the front will push north across the area with the front as the low moves to Illinois today. This reinforcing shot of humid air will couple with warm temperatures to produce CAPE values around 2000 J/KG, and showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop by this afternoon, aided by convergence along the warm front as it moves to I-70. Showers and thunderstorms already forming near Columbus indicate the beginning of this process. Some of the thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, with large hail and isolated tornadoes possible near Dayton where stronger shear will exist closer to the low. High temperatures remaining above normal will rise to the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure continuing its northeastward progression will reach Northern Indiana tonight, before crossing Lake Erie on Tuesday. This will place the ILN area in a region of persistent moist ascent ahead of the slowly moving low. Instability decreasing during the overnight hours will allow thunderstorms to weaken at night, but shower chances will persist in the humid airmass aided by PVA. Thunderstorms will then reignite on Tuesday, with storm organization enhanced by increasing jet stream energy, though CAPE at around 1000 J/KG may be lower than on Monday. Eastern locations may see more intense thunderstorms in a zone of greater moisture convergence and lift. Highs near 80 are expected again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening allowing for a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. Expect mainly dry weather with only a very slim chance of a shower early in the far southeast. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build southeast with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower/middle 80s south. As the high slides off to the east a southerly low level flow will develop with mid level ridging building into the Ohio Valley. Continued dry weather during the day on Friday. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Mid level flow backs ahead of a developing northern trof moving into the Great Lakes and a southern low over the Gulf states. Model spread exists regarding strength of the southern low, phasing and timing. Trends are a little slower, so will limit pops to chance across the west Friday night and then spread chance pops across the entire area Saturday. Will increase pops to high chance Sunday as a front associated with the Great Lakes trof comes into play. Temperatures to continue to warm with highs Saturday in the middle and upper 80s. Clouds and pcpn may mute temperatures a bit Sunday with highs generally in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Humid airmass continues to affect aviation. Early this morning, BR will reduce visibilities as low as IFR under light winds and high clouds. Once BR burns off after sunrise, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of TAF sites as instability increases along a front extending from low pressure to the west. There is still uncertainty as to timing and effects at airports. Convection will once again diminish after 00z with loss of daytime heating. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.