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334
FXUS61 KILN 020736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm temperatures are expected again today as surface high
pressure shifts off to our southeast. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the day on Friday as a low
pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure will continue to shift off to our southeast
today with light southerly flow developing across the region.
In the weak return flow, temperatures will moderate a bit from
yesterday with afternoon highs mostly in the mid 80s. Surface
dewpoints will also begin to increase through the day with
SBCAPES in the 500-1000 J/KG range developing through the
afternoon. Forcing is fairly weak but this may still be enough
to produce some isolated thunderstorm development, mainly from
mid afternoon onward, with the best chance for this across about
the northwest half of our area. DCAPES this afternoon are
progged to be around 1000 J/KG or so, so it will tough to rule
out a few stronger wind gusts if some better updrafts are able
to develop later this afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Any lingering thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening
with the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly
clear.

A mid level short wave will lift northeast across the Ohio
Valley late tonight and into the day on Friday in developing
southwest flow aloft. This will be accompanied by a weak
surface wave that will lift northeast across our region through
the day on Friday. This will result in an increase in clouds
later tonight with showers and a chance of thunderstorms
overspreading the region during the day on Friday. Instability
and shear will remain fairly marginal and this will help limit
any severe potential.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs
on Friday ranging from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Looking like quite an active period in store for the extended
forecast, persisting into next week with ridging set up in the
southern stream and large scale troughing in the north. Temperatures
throughout the extended remain above average... around 5-10+ degrees
above climatological normals.

The northern jet stream trough located near the Hudson Bay area will
be wrapping up and pulling its occluded/ cold front through the
region during the overnight hours. Showers continue to work through
the FA, moving from west to east. Forecast soundings still indicate
some weak, elevated instability lingering, so have kept thunder in
the forecast overnight. Overnight lows drop to the low 60s.

Saturday, a shortwave moving through the southern stream looks to
ride up the larger flow pattern and move through the Ohio Valley.
Forcing with this one is weak but should be enough to promote
showers/storms throughout the day on Saturday. Right now, highest
probability of more widespread precip will be east of I-75, given
placement and trajectory of shortwave (although, all areas will have
a chance for thunderstorms given the humid airmass in place).
Overall, do not have high confidence in precip forecast. High
temperatures in the mid/upper 70s.

More of the same on Sunday and Monday with another couple of
shortwaves moving through the southern flow, bringing renewed
chances for showers and storms. Again, forcing isn`t overly
impressive and therefore, signal for precip timing/location is weak.
Have gone with the blend and kept chance to low end likely PoPs in.

The next somewhat stronger signal for storms arrives mid-week as the
upper level trough in the northern stream occludes with its surface
low, pulling the cold front through the Ohio Valley. Interestingly,
both CIPS Analog Guidance and Colorado State Machine Learning both
light up during this time. However, right now we`re still too early
to really have much confidence. Will be something to watch.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some high level clouds will drift across the area at times
through the morning hours. As we begin to destabilize through
the day, scattered cumulus will develop into this afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible from mid
afternoon into the early evening, primarily for areas along and
north of I-70. However, chances appear low enough to leave a
mention out of the TAF attm. Any thunderstorms activity will
dissipate through mid evening.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday
through Monday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Campbell/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL