Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241916 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 316 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will keep clouds and some shower activity around the area through Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday. A weak system will bring some light shower activity to the region Friday into Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... An upper level low will move south of the area tonight. Clouds will persist through the night. Some patchy fog will also be present, especially across northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. Winds will stay up some overnight which will prevent visibilities from dropping too low. Scattered shower activity will decrease in coverage overnight, however some shower activity will persist. Temperatures will not drop much overnight due to cloud cover and therefore went close to guidance with lows in the middle 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Some residual shower activity will be present on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves primarily north of the the area. Cloud cover will persist although may start to see some breaks in the clouds late in the day and then into the overnight hours. Slightly cooler air will work into the region with lows in the upper 30s to the low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak surface high pressure will be found across the region on Thursday. Our focus will shift to an upper level closed low poised to move east across the Tennessee Valley and then take a turn to the northeast. We should see a dry day Thursday. The GFS is the model closest to our region with the upper level low to our southeast Thursday night. For now, have kept the threat of any showers just off to our east/southeast. On Friday, an upper level s/wv is forecast to push southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A weak front will move through at the surface. Clouds, and perhaps a few showers, are expected post frontal as this boundary and it upper level feature move through the region. By Friday night, these features will have moved off to the east. Models continue to indicate that a digging mid level trough will occur over the Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England Saturday into Saturday night. As this a occurs, a cold front will push south through our region. This front should be dry with the main effects occurring on Sunday with cooler and drier air expected as surface high pressure builds into the region. Some indications are that it may end up being cooler than currently forecast. Will continue to monitor trends. For early next week, the surface high will move east while a mid level ridge builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will bring dry weather along with a warming trend as return flow and warmer air push into the region. As for temperatures, lower to mid 60s should occur for highs Thursday through Saturday, with cooler temperatures on Sunday (could be cooler, we will monitor). Highs will then moderate into the 70s by early next week, more typical of late April and early May. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With an upper level low in the vicinity cigs are generally IFR and MVFR and expect similar cigs through the TAF period. Some LIFR cigs will be possible at times overnight especially at KDAY and KILN. Vsbys will generally be MVFR to VFR and some winds should keep vsbys from dropping too low, however cannot rule out some IFR vsbys especially tonight. Scattered showers will decrease in coverage tonight, however still expect some in the vicinity. Wind gusts are expected to be isolated and therefore left out of the TAFs at this time. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday afternoon and Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Novak

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