Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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575 FXUS61 KILN 181915 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley tonight, with a cold front also crossing the region, bringing another round of cool air by Thursday morning. Some light snow is possible Thursday morning, as a mid-level shortwave moves east through the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area by Friday and into the weekend, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As a warm front moves northeast into the region, a small area of high pressure has shifted toward Lake Erie, with a surface low moving eastward into southwestern Indiana. Further to the northwest, a shortwave trough at 500mb will be moving east across the Great Lakes. The focus through the near term is in the chances for precipitation with these two features. There has been a quick increase in shallow cumulus clouds over southern Indiana, in a warming environment that is nonetheless capped. Some deeper towering cumulus is noted along the front near the IL/IN border. Strong forcing, thanks to the front and the surface low, is the best thing this system has going for it. Instability, however, will be extremely limited -- with a warm layer at about 700mb that will likely keep convection shallow. Could not ignore the possibility, and thus some thunder was added in to the southern half of the CWA. The most likely scenario is that a band of heavy showers will develop along the front, passing through the ILN CWA between 22Z-03Z. If there are any threats from this, some gusty winds would be most likely. Gusty winds will likely continue even behind the front, with the possibility of wind gusts as high as 30-35 knots in the far southwestern CWA. Not enough for an advisory, but upstream conditions will be monitored to see if a special weather statement could be needed. There should be a break in the precipitation early in the overnight hours, before precipitation associated with the mid- level trough moves into the area from the northwest. As this occurs, there will be a secondary cold front shifting winds to the north, and providing enough cold advection to allow for some snow to mix in -- especially north of Interstate 70, where a light accumulation of a few tenths is a possibility. Though most of the precipitation will be light, the sky forecast was increased to 100-percent and winds do look to stay up through most of the night. This will allow for min temps in the lower to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry northerly flow will continue on Thursday, which should help to gradually erode the stratocumulus clouds, allowing for some breaks by the second half of the day -- particularly over Indiana and northwest Ohio. Persistent cold advection, even with some sun getting through, will keep temperatures in the middle 40s to around 50. This is 15-20 degrees below normal. With a chilly starting point and increasingly favorable skies heading into the evening, a freeze may be possible on Thursday night into Friday morning. It looked a little marginal (temps in the lower 30s) for a third-period freeze watch, but this was discussed among other NWS offices, so it is possible a headline may be needed in the future.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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First half of the extended period will see benign weather has a large surface high pressure system settles over the midwest. Friday is looking mostly sunny with temperatures rising to the the lower to mid 50s. High clouds will begin to increase on Saturday as upper level moisture is forecast to still over the H5 ridge. Highs will push into the mid to upper 50s. Over the weekend, models push an upper level low out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Mississippi Valley. The upper low begins to fill as this occurs. Due to the southern track, the precipitation stays south of the region through the weekend. highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 60s. As the models eject what is left of the low to the East Coast on Monday, some of the precipitation is pulled north into the region. Models are showing differences in how much and exactly where the pcpn will be, but there is enough certainty to put some low PoPs in the forecast for Monday into Tuesday. By Wednesday and H5 s/w drops down from the nrn Mississippi Valley. It merges with the initial upper low to bring additional chances of rain. Highs will generally be in the 60s for early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will continue this afternoon, with generally light southeasterly winds. The situation will change this evening, as a line of showers moves through the region, possibly containing gusty winds and MVFR conditions. After the line moves through, winds will shift to the west and become gusty, possibly as high as 30 knots at the Cincinnati airports. Ceilings will then gradually lower through the overnight hours, with some additional light precipitation moving into the area. This will be handled with a VCSH for KDAY/KILN and some prevailing light snow (MVFR) at KCMH/KLCK. Winds will remain somewhat gusty as they shift to the northwest going into Thursday. Ceilings may briefly drop to IFR during the early to mid morning hours, but a gradual improvement in ceilings is expected by afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hatzos

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