Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192015 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 415 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wavy east-west front will remain near the region into Tuesday. This will result in a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in by mid week bringing drier conditions to the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Convection moving across the region will diminish towards 00Z. There could be some locally heavy rainfall but storms are progressive and so the threat of flooding looks to be minimal. Some activity could linger into the evening in the northern counties as a front sags into the area. But even that should decrease. Thereafter, expect a quiescent night. Lows should be at or a bit above warmer guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Convection that occurs west of the region tonight may hold together long enough to affect part of the forecast area early Sunday morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in this regard, and even if it does make it into the area, it will be weakening quickly. So no hazardous weather is expected in the morning. In the wake of any remnants, the atmosphere will recover through the day. An east-west front will bisect the area. Along and south of the front it will become very unstable with CAPE likely 3000+ J/kg. Expect storms to develop along the boundary, most likely mid afternoon, and potentially move into the more unstable air. This unstable air will be along the southern periphery of the better bulk shear which may provide a zone for some storm organization. Just given the amount of instability forecast, there will be the potential for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. In addition, the very moist airmass remains in place, so heavy rain and localized flooding will be possible as well. Storms may continue into the early evening before moving out of the forecast area. Additional showers and thunderstorms may move in from the west late Sunday night as a disturbance lifts into the Great Lakes. Above normal temperatures will continue.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Active weather pattern to continue through early next week with ILN/s FA on the periphery of mid/upper level ridging. Frontal boundary to remain across the area late this weekend into Monday. This will keep high chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs Monday from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Mid level shortwave and associated surface wave to track through the Great Lakes Tuesday. Associated surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley. This will offer a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Warm temperatures to continue with Tuesdays highs from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes. A few lingering showers in the southeast early Wednesday, otherwise expect dry weather. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build east with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower 80s south. Dry weather to continue into Friday with flow backing ahead of a developing trof Friday night into Saturday. Will hold off any mention of pcpn until Friday night and then mention chance pops across the area Saturday. Expect highs Friday generally between 80 and 85.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the region through the early part of the TAF period. These will have the potential to temporarily reduce the visibility to IFR. Ceilings will be near the VFR/MVFR threshold. Precipitation and clouds will decrease towards 00Z. A weak front will sag south into the area overnight. There could be some lower clouds behind this front, particularly in the Columbus area. Elsewhere, there appears to be sufficient low level moisture for mist/fog to form and reduce visibilities. There is a chance that weakening convection could impact the Cincinnati area late tonight, so have included a VCSH for that potential. Conditions will improve to VFR late in the period with scattered cumulus. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...

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