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314
FXUS61 KILN 100243
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low moving east and away from Ohio this evening will
trail a cold front south through the CWA tonight in its wake.
A brief period of high pressure will build on Friday, then get
shunted to the southeast ahead of a surface low moving east
through southern Michigan. A trailing cold front will bring one
more threat of shower activity overnight and early Saturday,
with a dry period then expected to last through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level disturbance will allow for scattered showers
overnight. Temperatures will continue to cool and lows in the
middle 40s to lower 50s are expected overnight. Cloud cover is
expected to remain in place overnight. Winds will stay up some
across the region, however any wind gusts are expected to be
isolated. Winds will be a little less near and south of the
Ohio River.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will move east through the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Uniform northwest flow will keep a reinforcing shot of
cold air over the CWA during this time, limiting Saturday`s
highs to within 2-3 degrees of 65. Overnight lows will range
from the upper 40s along and west of the I-75 corridor, mid 40s
in eastern CWA, and some low 40s in the Hocking Hills. This is
due to clearing sky cover early on. In the west, winds will be
shifting southwest ahead of the next system. Surface low
pressure moving east through lower Michigan will push a cold
front from w-e across the CWA later overnight. Cloud cover will
overspread the west, and winds should shift to southwest before
daybreak everywhere. This will not likely hold temperatures up
in the east since the flow doesn`t pick up until the front gets
closer which will be nearer daybreak in this area.

Showers will accompany the front and be focused in the northern
CWA. Thunder can`t be ruled out as strong s/w energy is
rotating around a southeastward diving upper trough, with the
apex affecting our area of concern. The trough will cross w-e
through the CWA late Fri night and early Sat morning. Did not
think that thunder will be the prevailing wx with this feature.
Most likely scenario attm is showers, with some embedded thunder
towards daybreak. Went a little wide with the pop footprint, but
limited any higher pops to just a 60% chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level s/wv in the northwest flow aloft will be affecting
the region on Saturday. A cold frontal boundary will be moving
east through the morning, but with the embedded energy aloft
still yet to move through, showers and embedded thunderstorms
will linger into the first part of the afternoon. Pcpn will then
taper off from west to east from the latter half of the
afternoon into the evening. It will be breezy to locally windy
with wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph forecast. It will be cool
with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 far
south.

For Saturday night into Sunday, surface high pressure will
build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will allow
skies to clear and the airmass to dry out. After cool lows in
the 40s, highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.

For the period Sunday night into Monday, while the surface high
moves east, a mid level ridge axis will move east as well.
Clouds will increase and thicken by Monday as the next weather
system approaches from the southwest. Moist ascent will begin
during the afternoon hours which will lead to a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to the
mid 50s, highs on Monday will warm into the mid/upper 70s as
southerly flow increases.

The Monday night into Wednesday period will be marked by a more
active weather pattern as mid level energy and a front pass
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s will be
followed by highs in the lower to mid 70s.

A brief respite may occur by Wednesday night into the first
part of Thursday before more active weather moves in for the end
of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will exit the remaining TAF sites early in the TAF
period, however isolated to scattered shower activity will
remain overnight. Winds will be gusty at times to start the TAF
period, however expect any wind gusts to then become more
isolated. Cigs will lower and be MVFR to IFR at times. Expect
them to return to VFR during the day on Friday. Isolated
additional shower activity will be around on Friday primarily
around KILN, KCMH, and KLCK.

OUTLOOK...Showers with MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected later
Friday night into early Saturday. Wind gusts are also expected
for Saturday. Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...