Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210549 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow will continue across the region overnight and through the day on Wednesday. High pressure will allow for dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Another system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Low pressure over western West Virginia will meander overnight and then diminish as energy moves off to the east. Large shield of precipitation has blossomed across the area and will continue tonight into Wednesday. There are still some places in the eastern counties where the boundary layer is warm enough for rain or a rain/snow mix, but these locations should change over to snow shortly. So far accumulations have been quite limited and mostly on grassy areas, so most of this event has yet to play out. There will be some bursts of heavier snow, mainly in western counties. High resolution guidance still suggests that an arching band will occur along the western periphery of the forecast area which corresponds well with forecast axis of higher snowfall totals. Forecast looks on track with only very minor adjustments. The snow will gradually taper off during the day Wednesday. Given the time of year and higher sun angle, even with clouds and precipitation, additional accumulations during the day are expected to be an inch or less. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A weak disturbance working through Wednesday night will keep clouds in the forecast for awhile Wednesday night. Kept the forecast dry at this point, however cannot rule out some flurries or light snow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Under northwest flow aloft, our region will be on either side of weak systems to our northeast and southwest Thursday into Friday. At the surface, high pressure will prevail. Temperatures will remain chilly for late March with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. It still looks like energy will eject eastward from an upper level low off the Pacific Northwest Coast, which will perturb a wave of low pressure and warm front. These systems will affect the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night into Saturday night. This will bring the threat of rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix depending on the diurnal cycle and thermal fields. Highs on Saturday will be cold given the likelihood of pcpn and much of the region remaining northeast of the surface low and warm front. Highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. By Sunday into Monday, high pressure at the surface and aloft should establish itself across the region. Temperatures will gradually modify. The next threat for pcpn is expected by Monday nigh into Tuesday as the ridge moves east and energy and frontal boundary encroach from the west. By this time, it should remain warm enough for just liquid precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Snow will continue to keep vsbys and cigs to IFR or lower at times through daybreak. The low pressure system causing this snow will push east of the area through this afternoon. This will allow for the snow to begin to taper off from the west as we progress through the day. This will also lead to a gradual improvement in vsbys and cigs back up into MVFR category and then eventually VFR by late afternoon and into tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday and Saturday night.
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OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072>074-079>082-088. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070- 071-077-078. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ097>100. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>096. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050- 058-059. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.