Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141854 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 254 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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The threat for showers and thunderstorms will persist through much of the week as a frontal boundary remains in place across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Thunderstorms across eastern Ohio have congealed into a more consolidated MCS this afternoon with a training boundary extending west from it across souther Ohio. The winds have gone northerly behind the boundary and this has helped to somewhat stabilize the airmass across much of our area. We will have to continue to watch for any development along the boundary as it continues to push south, but so far it appears the cap is strong enough to limit any development. Mid level short wave energy will push across the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and across the southern Great Lakes tonight. This will help initiate additional shower and thunderstorm development back to our west through late afternoon/evening. However, the hi res cam models are in decent agreement weakening this activity as it pushes east toward our area later tonight. Will therefore limit pops to just 20-30 percent overnight, primarily across our northwest. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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It looks like the semi stationary boundary may begin to make more of a southward push through the day on Tuesday. As temperatures push back up into the mid 80s along and south of the boundary, we will once again destabilize nicely through the day. With a little bit of better forcing possibly associated with the boundary, expect to see scattered thunderstorm development across central portions of our fa through early afternoon, then pushing south through the rest of the day. The better shear values will again be to the north of the boundary, but given the instability, a severe threat will exist with a few of the storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds along with a secondary large hail threat. Some diurnal weakening/dissipation is likely heading into Tuesday night, but with the boundary still in the area, will linger some chance pops into the overnight hours. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Warm, humid and unstable conditions are forecast to persist through most of the long term, allowing multiple rounds of thunderstorms to develop. Surface boundary containing a humid airmass and enhanced by disturbances rounding a weak upper trough will produce thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday. Southeast locations closer to the boundary may see the bulk of convection. Chance of thunderstorms continues Sunday when a cold front is forecast to sweep in from the west. A break in thunderstorms may be observed Monday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal through the period. Highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower and middle 00s will be around 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread convection is continuing to push east southeast across central Ohio but it looks like it has all moved away of the TAF sites attm. A trailing boundary is pushing south across southern Ohio. Behind the boundary, winds have gone northerly and allowed for some stabilization of the airmass. This boundary should push south of KLUK/KCVG within the next hour or so and should help limit redevelopment through the remainder of the day. Additional storms are forecast to develop back to the northwest toward northern Illinois later this afternoon. This is forecast to move southeast toward our area early this evening but weaken heading into tonight. Suppose some of this could approach the northern TAF sites but think chance is low enough to maintain a dry forecast. The lingering frontal boundary will be situated across the area again through the day on Tuesday. This will likely allow for some additional scattered thunderstorm development, primarily through the afternoon hours on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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