Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180028 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 828 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region this this evening and overnight. As clouds clear, expect many locations to drop below freezing across the CWA overnight. Clouds will also be on the increase late tonight and into the day Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks towards the area. This system will bring a rain showers to much of Ohio Wednesday and Thursday. A large area of high pressure will then build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week into next weekend providing dry weather conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will briefly build into the area through the night. Skies have been clearing from the southwest through the day but the clearing seems to have slowed a bit across our north so will hang on to some clouds a bit longer up that way. Across central portions of our fa, skies have mostly cleared and with temperatures already in the mid 30s, will continue with the freeze warning. Farther south, temperatures will be a little more tricky. They were able to warm up more through late afternoon and temperatures are still mainly in the 40s across our south. In addition, it looks like there will be an increase in some mid level clouds later tonight from the south as the flow begins to back. Will therefore keep overnight lows above freezing across the southern third of our fa and hold off on a expanding the freeze warning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will push northward through Kentucky overnight, extending from the low pressure system approaching from the Plains. This will result in an influx of moisture in the form of clouds that will begin to impact the Ohio River by around midnight and then continue to extend northward across ILN into the second half of overnight. Expect that the influx of clouds will be slow enough across much of central and northern tiers of ILN that it shouldn`t play much of a factor into temps dropping below freezing. However for locations along and south of the Ohio River, warmer temps this afternoon (due to clearing that took place through the day), and the earlier influx of clouds overnight will prevent locations here from dropping below freezing. A freeze warning was issued for portions of the CWA from 3Z through 13Z. The far southern portion of the CWA was left out given borderline or above freezing temperatures forecast for overnight, while the northern half of the CWA is not currently within its frost/freeze program. The tier of counties just south of the warning could see borderline freezing temperatures, so will need to continue to monitor in case the warning needs to be extended further south. As we head into the day tomorrow, the center of low pressure is expected to shift eastward and traverse the ILN CWA during the late afternoon and evening. Winds will become more southerly and intensify throughout the afternoon ahead of this approaching system. This will also result in an influx of moisture and rain chances across the CWA throughout the afternoon as well. Rain should continue through the overnight Wednesday night, with northerly flow behind the exiting low taking hold and quickly dropping temperatures throughout the night. Overnight temps could fall to or just above freezing, especially in the northern portion of the CWA. Would not be surprised that lingering rainfall could mix with snow across the northern CWA during the late night (after 6Z). However, given the warm temps leading into this event, do not expect much impacts from this snowfall, unless we start to trend colder with the next model runs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended begins with a fairly sharp trough axis swinging east across the Ohio Valley, with scattered rain showers diminishing from west to east across the area through the day. Another cool day will be on tap, with readings running 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Clouds will clear out Thursday night, with temperatures likely near or below the freezing mark by early Friday morning. A nice stretch of dry weather will continue into early next week as ridging maintains control across the region. Surface high pressure will gradually move from the Great Lakes region to just off the New England coast by Tuesday. North to northeast winds will keep temperatures averaging below normal through the first half of the weekend, before moderating to near or slightly above normal by early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A stratocumulus deck has been slowly eroding away from the southwest through the afternoon and early evening hours. The clouds are still lingering at the northern TAF sites but would expect them to clear out over the next few hours. Surface high pressure will build quickly across the region overnight so expect to see a period of mostly clear skies. However, as the flow begins to back through the night, some mid level clouds will start to work in from the southwest late tonight. A low pressure system will approach from the west through the day on Wednesday as an associated warm front lifts north across the region. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers through the afternoon hours along with a lowering cloud deck. Cigs will drop into MVFR category during the later portions of the TAF period. Increasing southwesterly winds will develop through the afternoon hours with some gusts to around 25 knots becoming possible. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ060>065-070>074- 080-082. KY...None. IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMW NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JGL

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