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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 171912
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
312 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The area dries out through Thursday afternoon before the next
system moves into the Ohio Valley, bringing renewed chances for
rain and thunderstorms. After this system moves through, there
will be a notable cool down over the weekend, before
temperatures rebound slightly next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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The cold front will have moved through the area at the start of
the near term period, heralding in a ~10 degree drop in Tds.
Winds remain elevated through sunset Wednesday evening, then
decrease in intensity and shift to out of the west. Weak ridging
and subsidence behind the parent shortwave help clear skies
during the overnight areas. Overnight lows drop to the low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The weak ridging slowly moves east out of the region, with
mostly sunny Thursday morning skies being slowly replaced with
high clouds by Thursday late afternoon ahead of the next
shortwave system. The attendant weak surface low moves up from
the Ozarks region, bringing another push of theta-e through the
region late Thursday evening. Right now, high temperatures in
the low 80s along the Ohio River and highs in the mid 70s across
central Ohio.

12 and 18z CAM runs indicate a multicell cluster off to our west
quickly congealing into a (possibly bowing?) line as it moves
through out area. Right now, the higher severe threat appears
to be closer to the Tri- State, where forcing with the shortwave
is a bit stronger. In terms of hazards, primary concerns will be
damaging winds and large hail. With that being said... time of
arrival is still a bit up in the air and there is some question
as to whether the line arrives late enough in the evening that
available instability will be diminished. Continued high
moisture content suggests efficient rain rates and the
possibility for isolated areas of flooding.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms on Friday will taper
off from the west through morning and into early afternoon as the
mid level short wave moves off to the east. A west to northwest flow
pattern will then set up aloft heading into the weekend and remain
in place across the region through the first part of next week.

Surface high pressure over the northern Plains will nose down into
the Ohio Valley and then slowly shift southeast into the southeast
US through Monday. This will result in dry but cool conditions
across our area for Saturday through Monday. Daytimes highs will be
in in the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows down into the 30s.
There will be the potential for some frost conditions both Saturday
and Sunday nights.

Mid level energy will drop southeast into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing the next chance for some showers and perhaps a
thunderstorms Temperatures will moderate a bit with highs both days
in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A line of storms ahead of a cold front currently moving into
northwest Ohio will continue eastward this afternoon. All site
(except KCVG/KLUK) has a period of TSRA when storms are forecast
to move through. For the two southern sites, confidence is
lower that storms will reach that far south, so opted to keep
TAFs cleaner for the time being.

Outside of storms, CIGs have cleared up to a scattered deck of
stratocu and will continue clearing through the evening hours.
Strong southwesterly winds, gusting to 35 knots, shift to out of
the west after frontal passage. Winds remain elevated through
the afternoon but will decrease around sunset.

Clouds continue to decrease into the overnight hours and VFR
conditions should prevail into Thursday morning. Some hi-res
guidance hints at patchy fog development in southwest Ohio/
northern Kentucky after winds die down, however, doesn`t look to
be widespread or dense, therefore have not included in TAFs.


OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are
possible Thursday evening into Friday. Wind gusts around 30
knots are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA