-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
622
FXUS61 KILN 110551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky
cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure
center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the
Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on
Saturday. A line of showers are expected with it`s passage, with
the better coverage and strength found in the northern CWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Area of clouds over the area will continue tracking east
overnight. There will be a break in cloud cover before axis of
moisture ahead of a surface trough pushes into the region late.
Showers will impinge on areas north and west of I-71 before
daybreak.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The back edge of the showers should be in eastern CWA early
Saturday and quickly move east and away. However, as the sun
interacts with cold air aloft, some showers may begin to spark
in eastern and northeastern CWA. This is moreso in the
afternoon, but the chances were just expanded slightly westward
in the morning after the line`s passage.

Highs will warm slightly in the south tomorrow. Readings will
range from the mid 60s in the north to around 70 along and south
of the Ohio River.

It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid
to upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Clearing skies overnight with a building surface ridge and
generally light winds will see lows drop to the mid 40s with a
good radiational cooling setup.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday morning, an upper low will be moving eastward through
Pennsylvania and New York, with height rises occurring over the Ohio
Valley. Surface high pressure will be in place to the southeast of
the region, keeping dry conditions in place on Sunday and Sunday
night. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 70s.

On Monday, deep-layer southerly flow will become established into
the region, as an upstream trough develops over the plains. While
some showers could drift into the area on Monday afternoon, a more
significant source of deep-layer moisture and forcing will arrive
Monday night. This system will only be moving very slowly eastward,
with a surface low not crossing through the Ohio Valley until
Wednesday morning. This means that there will be an extended period
of chances for showers and storms from Monday night through
Wednesday. A southward-moving cold front will follow into the region
behind the surface low on Wednesday, providing drier and cooler air
and ending the chances for precipitation. Confidence in this part of
the forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall pattern,
but still details to work out. Some of the mesoscale details will
help determine if there will be any severe or flood threats with
this system, but there are no obvious signs at this point in the
forecast process.

Confidence is low in the pattern for Thursday and Friday, as there
remains model disagreement in how quickly southerly flow and
upstream troughing will return to the area. For now, will keep low
chances for precipitation in on both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR will prevail with primarily mid to high clouds at the start
of the period. A line of showers ahead of a surface trough will
push across the TAF sites between 11Z and 16Z. Most locations
will remain VFR, except the Columbus terminals where some
temporary MVFR conditions may occur.

With the passage of the trough, winds will veer to the west
northwest and strengthen. Some gusts to around 25 kt will occur
through the rest of the daytime period. Clouds will scatter.
Winds, both sustained and gusts, will decrease towards 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...