Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210800 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will push slowly east across the Great Lakes region through Sunday. This will provide for dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. An upper level low pressure system moving out of the Mississippi Valley will bring a chance of showers for the start of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure will shift slowly east across the southern Great Lakes through this afternoon as mid level ridging begins to break down aloft. This will allow for a fair amount of mainly high level moisture to drift east across the region through this afternoon. Across at least northern portions of our area, it looks like it may be opaque enough to lead to skies becoming mostly cloudy, with more of a partly sunny across our southern areas. Low level thermal fields will be a tad warmer than what we saw on Friday, but these will likely be countered somewhat by the increasing high clouds. As a result, expect highs once again in the upper 50s to lower 60s with perhaps some mid 60s across the south where they should see the most sunshine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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The mid level ridging will continue to weaken tonight into Sunday with weak pieces of mid level energy pushing east across the region overnight. This will help keep a fair amount of mainly high level cloudiness in place across our area. An upper level low will begin to slowly lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley through the day on Sunday, but with still some weak mid level riding hanging on across our area, dry conditions will prevail through the day. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday night an upper level low will be located near Arkansas and be mostly cut off from the main flow. The vertically stacked low will slowly push northeast with light rain moving into the area Monday evening. GFS forecast soundings are not to impressive, with mainly light rain and cool weather expected. The low will then remain quasi- stationary over the area Tuesday as an upper level disturbance over Canada remains to far north to pick the low up. By Wednesday the upper level disturbance over Canada will push far enough south to help pull the low northeast and out of the area. The latest run of the 00z models this morning are in general agreement with a slightly further north track of the low compared to the 12z model runs (except the CMC), so have nudged the chance of precipitation further north. Wednesday night into Thursday models begin to quickly diverge as each handles the ejection of the aforementioned low differently. Both the GFS and ECMWF dive a secondary upper level shortwave southeast out of Canada, but the GFS is much stronger with the shortwave and even wrap it up into a closed low. The ECMWF keeps the wave open. For now have split the difference between the models given the wide range of uncertainty. By the end of the extended a more potent upper level disturbance will dive south pushing a cold front through the region. Both the ECMWF and GFS have the front pushing through the area Friday or Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes through tonight. High and mid level clouds will spread down across the area through the day but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ062-063-071- 072-078>082-088. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ064-065-073- 074. KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ097>100. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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