Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 271705
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
105 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a cold front some clouds and cooler temperatures
can be expected today. High pressure will begin to build into
the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys tonight, and will extend
across the region into Thursday. A warm front will begin to
develop across Indiana and Ohio on Friday into Saturday as
southerly flow transports moisture into the area, leading to the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Prevailing fcst remains on track. Only adjustments made were to
sharpen the cloud/sky conditions, per latest satellite imagery,
as we progress into afternoon, with a blanket of
stratus/stratocu spreading E over a greater portion of the
local area. While many spots E of I-71 are mostly sunny this
morning, the cloud deck should expand into N/NE KY, south-
central OH, and central OH by late morning into early afternoon.
By mid/late afternoon, we should see more aggressive
clearing/scattering developing near/W of I-75 in parts of SE/EC
IN and the Tri-State, with the SW/W half or so of the local
area trending mostly sunny once again by early evening.

The clouds and low level CAA on westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph
will keep temperatures 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Highs to
range from the mid/upper 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure high pressure will build into the area
overnight into Thursday. Clearing to occur late in the day into
early evening. Clear skies and light winds will set the stage
for cooler sub-freezing temperatures.

Better clearing takes hold of the area on Wednesday night, with
temperatures falling below freezing across most locations. Low
temperatures to bottom out from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

A dry airmass will be in place with only some clouds possibly
spilling into the north Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will
warm slightly with highs remaining a few degrees below normal,
ranging from near 50 north to the upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
To kick off the long term, the trough that has persisted over the
region the last few days will be exiting to the east with a ridge
building in from the west into the day on Friday. Southwest flow
will support a warming trend for the whole area as a weak warm front
becomes established over the area. While a few isolated showers
can`t be ruled out on Friday, PoPs first begin to increase Friday
night into Saturday as a shortwave moves through the northern
periphery of the ridge, flattening the mid level flow. While
antecedent boundary layer thermodynamics don`t support widespread
convection, steep mid-level lapse rates help to provide some
potential for instability. Wind shear of ~40 knots will support a
marginal severe threat if convection is able to become established
within the weakly forced environment.

Uncertainty increases in how far south the warm front is displaced
by convectively aided pseudo-cold fronts. Ensemble guidance suggests
the boundary could be displaced as far south as the Ohio River while
others with more lackluster convection keep the front to the north
of the area entirely. Either way, this presents a scenario where
temperature forecasts are made with lower than desired confidence on
Sunday. Forcing will remain weak on Sunday with the best chance of
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms isolated to wherever the
boundary is established.

The upper level ridge rebounds northward on Sunday, prompting a
better surge of deeper moisture Sunday night into Monday. A stronger
LLJ Sunday night will assist additional shower and thunderstorm
chances through the overnight into Monday. Overall, instability
remains fairly meager, likely preventing a severe threat. This
changes Monday afternoon as steeper mid-level lapse rates help to
provide increased potential for slightly stronger updrafts. Once
again, the location of these thunderstorms remains low, but odds are
the southern half of the forecast would see the best threat based on
current ridge positioning.

Jet stream alignment and shortwave interaction Monday night into
Tuesday continue to differ across the deterministic and ensemble
guidance suite. Potential for rain totals approaching 2+ inches are
still fairly low across the multi-day rain event, likely due to the
lack of a strong convective signal and some disorganization with the
trough moving through Monday night. The long term period wraps up
with the trough axis shifting into the region with cooler
temperatures and drier conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR clouds in the post-frontal environment should linger into the
early afternoon hours. Clouds are eventually expected to scatter out
giving way to VFR conditions by the late afternoon/early evening.
The exact timing of VFR conditions returning is difficult to
pinpoint since models appear to be scattering clouds earlier than
current observations would suggest. After clouds scatter later
today, VFR conditions are likely to persist for the TAF period.

Westerly winds around 10 knots persists into the evening hours
before calming below 5 knots overnight. Westerly flow around 10
returns Thursday morning after sunrise..

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR ceilings
possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Campbell


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