Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290527 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 127 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front will bring clouds and a few showers to parts of the region tonight. Dry and warmer weather is then expected on Friday. Another warm front will move into the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing a greater threat for showers and a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak disturbance along with an associated westerly low level jet will continue to provide for scattered light showers overnight. Dry air near the surface will limit the precipitation to mostly sprinkles or virga. Activity will decrease from west to east as the night draws to a close. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Any shower activity should be over with and out of the area by sunrise Friday as the low level jet pivots off to the east/southeast. For Friday, the weak boundary will remain across the northern half of the CWFA. But with some weak ridging to the north and south of this boundary, and not much in the way of any forcing, it should remain dry with partly to mostly sunny skies. West winds will increase some with gusts between 15 and 25 mph possible. It will be warmer with highs ranging from the lower 60s northeast to near 70 southwest. Chances for showers and few thunderstorms will increase Friday night as a mid level s/wv moves into the Great Lakes from the west. An associated low level jet will focus low level forcing into the region along a warm front which will act as the impetus for increasing showers and storms. The best chance will be across the west central Ohio region with lesser chances as one heads south of the Ohio River. It will be mild with lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Midlevel ridging will develop and nudge E into the OH Vly for the first half of the long term period, prompting broader deep- layer WAA/theta-e advection and weak isentropic lift as several midlevel waves move E through the region. By late Friday night through Saturday morning, an embedded S/W will eject E from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly, promoting stronger lift along the nose of a strengthening LLJ nudging to the NE through the region. This will allow for better moisture/mass convergence to develop/expand, leading to the development of a narrow corridor of SHRA extending ESE from nrn IL through nrn/central IN and nrn/central OH by Saturday morning. There appears to be relatively good agreement in the model suite with regards to this feature, with only subtle latitudinal variability in the solutions at this time. Feel confident continuing likely/categorical PoPs for the nrn half or so of the ILN FA Saturday morning before slightly drier conditions evolve by afternoon/evening as the main system pulls E of the region, leaving the dangling baroclinic zone arcing back to the WSW. This initial wave, upon its departure Saturday evening, should push the aforementioned boundary S to closer to/S of the OH Rvr as drier air briefly builds in behind the first sfc wave Saturday night/early Sunday. This should allow for drier, although perhaps not completely dry, conditions Saturday evening/night. However, this boundary will begin to stall and lift back N once again by Sunday morning/afternoon. This will promote renewed convective development Sunday as directional convergence increases near the WNW-ESE oriented front, sharpening the baroclinic zone further. This will coincide with more aggressive moisture transport back N into the region, with PWAT anomalies potentially exceeding 175% of normal, by Sunday night. With all of this, another round of rain/storms (with some low-end instby being shown on much of the prevailing guidance) should blossom about Sunday afternoon through the night, initially near/S of the I-70 corridor. With the steering-layer flow oriented more parallel to the forcing mechanism (the quasi WNW-ESE oriented baroclinic zone), the potential for heavy rain and training of convection may evolve Sunday and will need to be watched carefully for the onset of hydro concerns, even with the antecedent dry conditions for much of the area. We should continue to see a northward pivot in the boundary through early Monday, with more of the local area becoming situated squarely in the warm sector of the eastward-moving system, which should eject through the central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly by Monday afternoon. Renewed rain/storm chances will occur once again late Monday/Monday night/Tuesday morning with the better forcing and additional lift spreading E ahead of/along the front, with the primary system moving through the region at some point late Tuesday. There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same areas more than once. Although the ILN FA has seen drier-than-normal conditions recently (especially in the last 14 days) and streamflow is generally running below normal, persistent training of convective activity could lead to isolated flooding. Still a bit too far out to isolate one specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the anomalous moisture content in the profile and the cumulative effect of several rounds of steady/heavy rain as we progress into Monday/Monday night/Tuesday morning. The other item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together, especially in a scenario with a strengthening/deepening sfc low darting to the NE through the wrn OH Vly. And if a more wide-open (further north) warm sector is able to develop Monday afternoon/evening, allowing for a better/more favorably-widespread LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind fields, a few strong to severe storms could evolve. As of right now, the most concerning time period for a few strong to severe storms may be Monday evening/night, but there are still quite a few spatial and temporal details that need to be ironed out. Will continue broad- brushed mention in the HWO for now, with additional details to be added in subsequent forecast updates. Drier and cooler conditions should return beyond midweek next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered light rain showers will drift southeast across the region through daybreak but should have minimal operational effects on the TAF sites. Pcpn will taper off through mid morning with mid and high level clouds affecting the area at times through the remainder of the TAF period. A developing low level jet will lead to the possibility of some LLWS late tonight into early Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JGL

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