Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190001 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 801 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley tonight, with a cold front also crossing the region, bringing another round of cool air by Thursday morning. Some light snow is possible Thursday morning, as a mid-level shortwave moves east through the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area by Friday and into the weekend, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Line of showers moving east through southern 2/3 of CWA this evening will be fairly progressive and be out of the picture in the next 3-4 hours. Have not seen any CG lightning strikes out of these storms but the steep lapse rates continue to support a threat for isolated thunder as it moves east - generally south of a Dayton-Chillicothe line. Winds shift northwest as the line exits and some stronger 15-20mph sustained winds will experience gusts to 30 mph or better as cold air rushes in on the back side of this system. After a break in the rainfall, cold air will interact with moist layer and see a snow/rain mix along the I-70 corridor towards midnight, spreading southeast overnight towards Kentucky and changing to all snow north of I-70 before daybreak. Have adjusted the temperature traces some as there was a lot more warm air ahead of the convective line and a lingering pocket that was not as cold in the lingering inverted trough over the eastern CWA towards daybreak. Gusty winds will likely continue even behind the front, with the possibility of wind gusts as high as 30-35 knots in the far southwestern CWA. Not enough for an advisory, but upstream conditions will be monitored to see if a special weather statement could be needed. Though most of the precipitation overnight will be light, the sky forecast was increased to 100-percent and winds do look to stay up through most of the night. This will allow for min temps in the lower to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry northerly flow will continue on Thursday, which should help to gradually erode the stratocumulus clouds, allowing for some breaks by the second half of the day -- particularly over Indiana and northwest Ohio. Persistent cold advection, even with some sun getting through, will keep temperatures in the middle 40s to around 50. This is 15-20 degrees below normal. With a chilly starting point and increasingly favorable skies heading into the evening, a freeze may be possible on Thursday night into Friday morning. It looked a little marginal (temps in the lower 30s) for a third-period freeze watch, but this was discussed among other NWS offices, so it is possible a headline may be needed in the future. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... First half of the extended period will see benign weather has a large surface high pressure system settles over the midwest. Friday is looking mostly sunny with temperatures rising to the the lower to mid 50s. High clouds will begin to increase on Saturday as upper level moisture is forecast to still over the H5 ridge. Highs will push into the mid to upper 50s. Over the weekend, models push an upper level low out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Mississippi Valley. The upper low begins to fill as this occurs. Due to the southern track, the precipitation stays south of the region through the weekend. highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 60s. As the models eject what is left of the low to the East Coast on Monday, some of the precipitation is pulled north into the region. Models are showing differences in how much and exactly where the pcpn will be, but there is enough certainty to put some low PoPs in the forecast for Monday into Tuesday. By Wednesday and H5 s/w drops down from the nrn Mississippi Valley. It merges with the initial upper low to bring additional chances of rain. Highs will generally be in the 60s for early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Line of showers with heavy rain and gusty winds is moving east through CWA and will primarily affect ILN and CMH/LCK with rapid improvement found at DAY and CVG/LUK. VFR cigs are prevailing with this and though no CG strikes have occurred as yet, remain possible but should be located away from TAF sites this evening. After the line moves through, winds will shift northwest and become gusty, possibly as high as 30 knots at the Cincinnati airports. Ceilings will then gradually lower through the overnight hours from northwest to southeast, with another steady period of light rain then mixing with snow overnight. Winds will remain somewhat gusty as they shift to the northwest going into Thursday. Ceilings may briefly drop to IFR during the early to mid morning hours, but a gradual improvement in ceilings is expected by afternoon as skies clear. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks

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