Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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839 FXUS61 KILN 250756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Fog and patchy drizzle this morning will give way to another cloudy day today as an upper level disturbance and cold front crosses the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday. A weak system will bring some light shower activity to the region Friday into Friday evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Currently patchy drizzle and areas of fog have been observed generally north of Dayton thanks to low level saturation and weak 850/ 700 MB omega values. Have added a mention of the fog into the HWO along with issuing an SPS for the northern zones. Overall thinking is that after 5 AM visibilities will begin to lift as the pressure gradient tightens. During the day today low clouds will slowly rise ahead of the next upper level disturbance. This upper level shortwave will push east across Michigan and bring a slight chance of showers to our eastern zones. Forcing with this system doesn`t look great, but enough PVA and upper level diffluence will clip our eastern zones to keep the mention in the forecast. On the back side of the upper level shortwave, mid and upper level dry air will wash over the region. Low level moisture will be slow to exit though and thinking is that even behind the shortwave partly cloudy skies can be expected (the far northwest being the exception where enough dry air advection will take place to clear the clouds out). This continued cloud cover will again make high temperatures below normal for this time of year. Have gone slightly below guidance here.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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This evening a cold front will wash south across the area before stalling out. This will be thanks to another upper level low that will move just of the area. The upper level low will be located near the Oklahoma/ Arkansas border Wednesday evening and push south of the area during the day Thursday. The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement with the center of the low being over Tennessee. This should be far enough to keep the area precipitation free. The main impacts from the system will be a widespread cirrus canopy across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. High temperatures are expected to still be in the low to mid 60s or below normal for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A mid level short wave will lift northeast out of the Tennessee Valley and across the Appalachians Thursday night into Friday. The models are in decent agreement keeping any pcpn associated with this to our southeast. However, this will help amplify the East Coast upper level trough as we head into the weekend with additional pieces of short wave energy rotating down across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but it does look like there may be enough forcing/moisture to allow for a few showers to push east across our area through the day on Friday. A few showers may then be possible across our far north/northeast Friday night into Saturday, but the better forcing and moisture looks to remain to our north, so will maintain a dry forecast through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with overnight lows in the 40 to 45 degree range. A slightly cooler airmass will work into the region Saturday into Sunday with highs both days ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the low to possibly mid 60s across the south. Lows Saturday night will drop into the mid to upper 30s and this could lead to some patchy frost development. Ridging and rising heights will build into the region as we head into the work week. This will result in dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 70s, warming to highs in the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Many locations are IFR this morning with surface low pressure located well off to our southeast. A surface cold front is currently located across northern Indiana with visibilities low ahead of the front (and across our area as well). The general idea is for these low visibilities to continue ahead of the front and through the higher terrain of the central parts of the CWA (such as KILN). There will likely be some lower visibilities and ceilings at KDAY as well. Wednesday morning after sunrise visibilities will slowly start to come up with northwest winds and drier mid and upper level air starting to work into the area. By late afternoon all TAF sites will be VFR as the cold front washes over the area. An upper level disturbance will also cross over the region Wednesday afternoon which could bring some isolated/ weak showers, but think this chance is to limited to mention in the TAFs at this time. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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