Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241955 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 355 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east resulting in southerly winds that will bring increasing heat and humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the weekend, particularly in the afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure extending across the area will move east overnight. Dry airmass remains in place, so there will be little to no clouds with light winds. Thus expect some river valley fog. Guidance seemed to have a reasonable handle on temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Deep, but not particularly strong, southerly flow will bring increasing moisture into the region through the period. Most numerical models are picking up on a subtle disturbance moving out of Kentucky and heading into eastern Ohio on Friday. This should be sufficient for scattered showers and thunderstorms to occur across the southeast part of the forecast area. Other locations will remain dry with mostly sunny skies. Convection in the southeast will have dissipated/moved off to the northeast by evening and skies will clear area wide. However, a weak short wave will approach later Friday night. This will bring an increase in clouds and possibly some showers and thunderstorms towards daybreak Saturday, particularly in the southern counties. Temperatures will be warmer both Friday and Friday night. MOS blend looked reasonable. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad southerly surface flow at the beginning of the period will continue to pull moisture into the region. Meanwhile a weak H5 s/w will be sliding across the srn Great Lakes on Saturday. These two features will combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. It will be warm and humid as highs reach the mid 80s. An isolated location could make the upper 80s. Saturday night, the models bring a tropical low into the Gulf of Mexico. North of this system, a weak surface trof will stretch from the Carolinas to the lower Ohio Valley. This boundary will continue to provide a focus for scattered convection on Sunday. Highs Sunday should reach the upper 80s for most locations. By Monday, a weak backdoor cold front will drop through the Great Lakes and into northern Ohio. This will keep the chance of convection in the forecast. With the front dropping south and acting as a barrier, the tropical low begins to dissipate in the lower MS valley. However, the tropical moisture will return by midweek as high pressure pulls back into ern Canada. This means the return of summer-like heat and humidity and scattered convection. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry airmass will keep clouds to a minimum through the TAF period. Few cumulus may develop on Friday. It appears that shallow fog may develop at KLUK once again which would reduce the visibility to IFR or lower late tonight which would then dissipate quickly after daybreak. East winds less than 10 kt will veer to the south southwest on Friday. OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...

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