Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200813 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface boundary enhanced by weak disturbances will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development today into Tuesday. High pressure is forecast to provide drier conditions starting Wednesday and continuing for the rest of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface analysis has a boundary draped across the ILN area. Afternoon temperatures boosted to the low and mid 80s will yield CAPEs of about 2000 J/KG, into the moderate range. Ripples of short wave energy along the front, interacting with this humid and unstable airmass in place, will produce scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. This will be a marginal environment for severe thunderstorm development. Limited wind shear and moderate instability point toward pulse storms that may produce a few strong to severe wind gusts late this afternoon, mainly in southwest counties. Latest HRRR showing gusts around severe limits approaching SE Indiana by 6 pm supports this scenario.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Strong storms that develop along the boundary could be near severe limits across southern counties this evening. Training of storms will possibly lead to high water problems as well. A diminishing trend may then be evident early in the overnight hours with loss of daytime heating. Later tonight, additional short wave energy may trigger more showers and thunderstorms. For Monday, thunderstorms will be possible again in the persistently unstable airmass positioned along the slow moving boundary, aided by another round of short waves embedded in the mean flow. High temperatures reaching around 80 will allow enough instability for continued thunderstorm development.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Active weather pattern to continue through early next week with ILN/s FA on the periphery of mid/upper level ridging. Mid level shortwave to induce a surface wave that tracks through the area Monday night and Tuesday. This will allow an associated surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday. This will offer a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Warm temperatures to continue with Tuesdays highs from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes. A lingering chance for showers/thunderstorms will persisting the southeast early Wednesday, otherwise expect dry weather. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build southeast with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower/middle 80s south. Southerly low level flow develops on the backside of retreating sfc high pressure Friday with mid level ridging building into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the lower and middle 80s. Mid level flow backs ahead of a developing trof with moisture increasing Friday night. Will mention chance pops for showers and thunderstorms Friday night west and across the entire area Saturday. Warm temperatures to continue with highs Saturday generally in the middle 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Boundary combined with humid airmass will produce some aviation weather concerns. Isolated showers this morning will probably not impact airports directly. BR and FG will reduce visibilities under light winds. For this afternoon into this evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of TAF sites. Strong wind gusts and lowered visibilities may occur with some thunderstorms but it is too soon to pinpoint timing and location. Latest models show that convection may be slow to dissipate late in the period, so kept vcsh after 00z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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