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000
FXUS61 KILN 140257
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1057 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will move east overnight as a warm
front lifts northeast into the region. Low pressure tracking
across the Great Lakes on Sunday will bring a threat for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon into Sunday night. High
pressure and dry air are expected to move back in for Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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For tonight, under a west to northwest flow aloft, a surface
ridge across the middle Ohio Valley will move east while a warm
front associated with low pressure across the western Great
Lakes lifts northeast into the region. Our area can expect a mix
of mid and high level clouds along with an increase in
southerly flow as the surface pressure gradient tightens. It
should remain dry. Lows will range from the mid 40s to the lower
50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Skies will remain mostly clear during the first part of Sunday
while the region becomes warm sectored and a low pressure system
advances across the Great Lakes. As the low continues to move
quickly east Sunday afternoon and evening, clouds and winds will
increase and showers and thunderstorms may develop along a
boundary trailing across Ohio from the low. Thanks to ample
instability and potent wind fields near the boundary, some
strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly east of Dayton
along I-70. While we are in a marginal risk for severe weather
on the SPC day 2 outlook, a better threat for severe
thunderstorms will exist to the east of ILN where deeper
moisture and stronger instability will be present.

Temperatures boosted by warm advection on the southwest low
level flow are forecast to reach the mid and upper 70s, followed
by lows Sunday night in the low 50s to around 60.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak influence of high pressure will keep the forecast dry for
much of the CWA on Monday. A mild air mass will be in place and
allow for surface temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s for
most, with perhaps some locations south of the OH River hitting
the 80 degree mark.

The pattern quickly turns active however for the rest of the
work week. A longwave H5 trough will carve its way through the
southern CONUS. By Tuesday, a surface low will have developed
and strengthened on the lee side of the Rockies. An elongated
warm front from this low will stretch eastward into the Ohio
Valley, placing ILN firmly in the warm sector for most of
Tuesday. Scattered showers and a few storms expected in this
warm sector of the low. As the surface low continues to trek
eastward, better forcing will create better chances for
showers/storms, with the best coverage expected on Wednesday
with the approaching cold front.

Slightly cooler air settles into the region on Thursday, but
temperatures still remain near or just above seasonal normals. A
shortwave feature to our north keeps PoPs in the forecast
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For tonight, under a west to northwest flow aloft, a surface
ridge across the middle Ohio Valley will move east while a warm
front associated with low pressure across the western Great
Lakes lifts east/northeast into the region. Winds will diminish
some this evening, then they will pick up a little after 06Z as
the pressure gradient increases. Aloft, a low level jet will
bring the likelihood of non convective LLWS to the terminals
overnight.

On Sunday, the surface low is forecast to move to southern New
England by Sunday evening. As this occurs, an attendant cold
front will slip south into our area from the northwest. The LLWS
threat will end between 14Z and 15Z as the low level inversion
mixes out due to diurnal heating. This will bring southwest to
west winds sustained between 15 and 20 knots with gusts between
25 and 30 knots. It will remain dry for most of the day as
models suggest that a capping inversion aloft will have to erode
until late in the day. By then, some some forcing with the
associated cold front will aid in shower and thunderstorm
development. The probability for these scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be highest over the northern terminals. For
now, have placed VCTS/CB at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. Winds will begin to
diminish (sustained and gusts) by 00Z as diurnal cooling takes
place. VFR conditions should still predominate outside
shower/storm activity, but local MVFR conditions, isolated IFR
visibilities, could occur in stronger storms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night, then again
Tuesday into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hickman