Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160743 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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The area will be under a cold and somewhat moist westerly flow today and tonight behind departing low pressure. High pressure and dry air will build in for Tuesday. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes is forecast to provide a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low pressure that produced a one to two+ inches of rain is now east of the area, leaving minor tributary flooding. Cold advection on a westerly flow behind the low is dropping temperatures through the 40s into the 30s early this morning, with afternoon readings likely to settle into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Isolated to scattered rain showers have developed and are changing to snow showers as the colder air filters in. The sporadic light showers are forecast to persist through today, with some locations receiving light precip amounts from a weather regime containing shallow moisture and instability.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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A few snow showers are expected to linger tonight in the persistently cold and marginally moist westerly flow. Low temperatures are forecast to fall just below freezing. Have issued freeze warning for counties where growing season has started. Mitigating factors that may prevent a sharp drop off in temps include clouds and winds, so confidence in below freezing readings is a bit less than average. For Tuesday, weak high pressure forming under a northwesterly upper flow is forecast to bring dry weather conditions. Temperatures will rebound back toward normal while remaining below normal, with highs expected to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday night, offering dry weather. Surface and upper low to track through the Great Lakes Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Moisture is limited with this system, so will limit pops to chance category with the best chance across the north. Temperatures to warm up to readings close to or a little above normal. Expect highs from near 60 north to near 70 south. Model solutions have trended more amplified and slower with pcpn moving out. Will hang onto chance pops across the northeast through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs Thursday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering a return to dry weather for the end of the week into the first part of next weekend. Temperatures to moderate some but still remain below normal with highs Friday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Models have trended toward the ECMWF being more amplified and slower with upper level low over the southern plains next weekend. Will maintain a dry forecast Saturday and then limit pops to chance across the south Sunday. Temperatures to moderate a little closer to normal with highs Saturday and Sunday from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR ceilings and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will continue at TAF sites in the somewhat moist westerly flow behind departing low pressure. Winds will gust over 20 knots especially this afternoon during peak mixing. Improvement to VFR will be possible late in the forecast as weak high pressure builds in. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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