Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251741 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Expect another cloudy day today as an upper level disturbance and cold front crosses the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday. A weak system will bring some light shower activity to the region Friday into Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Still some patchy drizzle late this morning, with low clouds persisting. During the day today low clouds will slowly rise ahead of the next upper level disturbance. This upper level shortwave will push east across Michigan and bring a slight chance of showers to our eastern zones. Forcing with this system doesn`t look great, but enough PVA and upper level diffluence will clip our eastern zones to keep the mention in the forecast. On the back side of the upper level shortwave, mid and upper level dry air will wash over the region. Low level moisture will be slow to exit though and thinking is that even behind the shortwave partly cloudy skies can be expected (the far northwest being the exception where enough dry air advection will take place to clear the clouds out). This continued cloud cover will again make high temperatures below normal for this time of year. Have gone slightly below guidance here. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... This evening a cold front will wash south across the area before stalling out. This will be thanks to another upper level low that will move just of the area. The upper level low will be located near the Oklahoma/ Arkansas border Wednesday evening and push south of the area during the day Thursday. The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement with the center of the low being over Tennessee. This should be far enough south to keep the area precipitation free. The main impacts from the system will be a widespread cirrus canopy across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. High temperatures are expected to still be in the low to mid 60s or below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid level short wave will lift northeast out of the Tennessee Valley and across the Appalachians Thursday night into Friday. The models are in decent agreement keeping any pcpn associated with this to our southeast. However, this will help amplify the East Coast upper level trough as we head into the weekend with additional pieces of short wave energy rotating down across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but it does look like there may be enough forcing/moisture to allow for a few showers to push east across our area through the day on Friday. A few showers may then be possible across our far north/northeast Friday night into Saturday, but the better forcing and moisture looks to remain to our north, so will maintain a dry forecast through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with overnight lows in the 40 to 45 degree range. A slightly cooler airmass will work into the region Saturday into Sunday with highs both days ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the low to possibly mid 60s across the south. Lows Saturday night will drop into the mid to upper 30s and this could lead to some patchy frost development. Ridging and rising heights will build into the region as we head into the work week. This will result in dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 70s, warming to highs in the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Flight conditions are beginning to improve as drier air works in behind an area of low pressure. Should see improvement to VFR at western sites CVG LUK DAY and ILN within a few hours of TAF issuance. Eastern sites CMH and LCK may see MVFR ceilings persist through tonight in lingering low level moisture and forcing. VFR is then expected for the rest of the period as high pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes. Winds starting from the north at around 10 knots will subside to under 10 knots while direction changes to east. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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