Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
009 FXUS61 KILN 161742 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will move in from the north today and then push east. Tonight, an area of low pressure will begin to move east from Missouri through Kentucky. This will spread a mix of rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow into the northern Ohio Valley. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low level moisture associated with cloud deck in northeast Ohio may allow for some cumulus to develop into central Ohio today. Otherwise, thin cirrus will continue to spread eastward across the entire region. Overall, expect a good deal of sun area wide. Forecast temperatures looked reasonable with just minor adjustments. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Late tonight into early Saturday morning the low pressure that was in Kansas will move into Illinois and Indiana. The mid level feature will begin to shear out and open up and get absorbed into the east coast upper level trough axis. For the Ohio Valley this means the surface low will track south of the area keeping us north of the warm front. Late tonight, isentropic upglide will commence across the western zones and slowly progress east. As this happens low level thermal profiles will quickly warm above freezing with surface temperatures remaining below freezing across the northeastern part of the area. This means that freezing rain will be possible. The latest high res ECMWF and NSSL WRF runs bring the freezing line south almost to the Ohio river and with northeast winds this is plausible. The latest METRo road model indicates possible issues on area roadways mainly north of Interstate 70. The other concern here is p-type on the northern edge of the system. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF have thermal profiles that support freezing rain, ice pellets, snow and rain towards Columbus. The forecast evolution of the thermal profiles presented by the models makes sense as an initial freezing rain profile cools due to the approaching mid level wave which supports a transition over to ice pellets and then possible snow. Across the central zones up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible with a warm nose forecast to hang on through much of the duration of the event. Given a pretty consistent signal with this, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Central Ohio. Future forecasts will continue to have watch the southern freezing line. During the day Saturday temperatures will slowly warm above freezing as the surface low pressure skirts east just south of the area. The isentropic upglide wing of the system will pull east in the afternoon with a weak deformation axis moving across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Across the south Saturday afternoon thermal profiles will support all rain with precipitation across the north ended. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers may linger across our far southeast into Saturday evening. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build east across the region Saturday night into Sunday before shifting off to the east Sunday night. This will provide for dry conditions with highs on Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A closed mid level low and an associated surface low will push east out of the Plains on Monday and across the Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday. Ahead of the low, models are in decent agreement spreading pcpn into our area from the southwest Monday night and then lingering it across our area through the day on Tuesday. Thermal profiles support primarily rain with this wave, although depending on how fast the pcpn spreads into the area, there could be a rain/snow mix or even all snow across our far north late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 40s into the north to the mid to possibly upper 50s across the south. Highs on Tuesday will cool into the 40s. Some uncertainty then arises through mid week as the models try to amplify the mid/upper level trough over the East Coast and are suggesting the possibility of an inverted surface trough nosing back into the upper Ohio Valley. This would likely keep the threat for pcpn continuing Wednesday into Wednesday night before tapering off on Thursday. As the low level flow transitions to more northerly Wednesday into Wednesday night, thermal profiles will continue to cool. This will allow for a transition from mainly rain on Wednesday to snow as we progress into Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours, with gradually increasing high and mid clouds, and easterly winds remaining near or under 10 knots. Precipitation is expected to move into the TAF sites during the early morning hours. This precipitation is expected to be rain for the Cincinnati airports, but a period of freezing rain is expected for Columbus and Dayton. Despite this, ceilings are actually expected to remain VFR through most of the rain or freezing rain, only dropping into the MVFR category later in the morning, once precipitation becomes more showery. Some ceilings may briefly lower to the IFR category during the late morning to early afternoon. There is also the potential for a mix with sleet and snow at the Columbus airports, mainly in the 13Z-15Z time frame. Precipitation will gradually become more showery and eventually come to an end entirely, with continuing MVFR ceilings heading into the afternoon. Winds tomorrow will generally be out of the ENE, again at or below 10 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Monday night through Tuesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.