Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211445 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1045 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop today in the warm and humid airmass ahead of low pressure centered to the west. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday when the low is forecast to travel to the Great Lakes. Look for dry weather to arrive with high pressure Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An isolated storm has developed just east of ILN in an area of weak moisture convergence. Looks like any additional activity in eastern counties will remain isolated into the early afternoon. Additional storms will develop in mid to late afternoon. Greater coverage and strength of storms will likely impact west central Ohio, but further activity could develop southeast from there along the warm front. Parameters still appear favorable for severe storms with damaging wind and hail. At this point, tornado threat appears to be greatest in west central Ohio where helicity is forecast to be higher.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure continuing its northeastward progression will reach Northern Indiana tonight, before crossing Lake Erie on Tuesday. This will place the ILN area in a region of persistent moist ascent ahead of the slowly moving low. Instability decreasing during the overnight hours will allow thunderstorms to weaken at night, but shower chances will persist in the humid airmass aided by PVA. Thunderstorms will then reignite on Tuesday, with storm organization enhanced by increasing jet stream energy, though CAPE at around 1000 J/KG may be lower than on Monday. Eastern locations may see more intense thunderstorms in a zone of greater moisture convergence and lift. Highs near 80 are expected again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening allowing for a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. Expect mainly dry weather with only a very slim chance of a shower early in the far southeast. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build southeast with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower/middle 80s south. As the high slides off to the east a southerly low level flow will develop with mid level ridging building into the Ohio Valley. Continued dry weather during the day on Friday. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Mid level flow backs ahead of a developing northern trof moving into the Great Lakes and a southern low over the Gulf states. Model spread exists regarding strength of the southern low, phasing and timing. Trends are a little slower, so will limit pops to chance across the west Friday night and then spread chance pops across the entire area Saturday. Will increase pops to high chance Sunday as a front associated with the Great Lakes trof comes into play. Temperatures to continue to warm with highs Saturday in the middle and upper 80s. Clouds and pcpn may mute temperatures a bit Sunday with highs generally in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Humid airmass ahead of low pressure continues to affect aviation. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of TAF sites as instability increases along a front extending from low pressure to the west. There is still some uncertainty as to timing and effects at airports. Put TSRA with MVFR visibilities in tempo groups at all sites during the most favorable period late this afternoon early this evening. Stronger convection will once again diminish after 00z with loss of daytime heating. Showers may persist at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF when a cold front is forecast to move through. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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