Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180038 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 838 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future for the ILN CWA as a broad midlevel trough continues to stretch from the Mississippi River Valley toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A weak surface low will help move the quasi-stationary frontal boundary north through the area on Saturday before an additional system arrives by Sunday night. Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As expected, unorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed over the southeastern half or so of the ILN CWA. This activity will slowly migrate westward through the remaining daytime heating hours before slowly waning in both coverage and intensity after sunset. Most of this activity will stay near and or south of the I-71 corridor through the evening before lingering showers slowly migrate northward through the overnight period. While widespread flooding is not expected with any of this activity, do expect that any brief downpours may lead to localized ponding of water in low-lying and/or flood prone areas. Nevertheless, a decrease in downpours is expected past sunset. With partly cloudy skies north and west of the I-71 corridor this afternoon, temperatures have warmed to near 80 degrees in portions of east central Indiana and west central Ohio. Further southeast, where cloud cover and precipitation coverage has been a bit more robust, temperatures are slightly cooler (but still in the mid to upper 70s). As precipitation weakens and decreases in coverage late evening, a gradual shift of any lingering precipitation to the north will occur as a disturbance begins to pivot through the local area tonight. The best chances for precipitation during the overnight period will be near the I-70 corridor, but think that even chance PoPs may be a bit overdone given latest data. Nevertheless, coverage may once again be on the increase from the east towards the very end of the near term period. With thicker low level cloud cover on the increase tonight from the south, temperatures will remain again above seasonal norms, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the north/west to the mid 60s in the south/east. Although areas in northern Kentucky and south-central Ohio may have lingering low level moisture from the day`s rainfall, a steady northeast wind of 10 to 15 MPH will likely inhibit fog development to at least some degree. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As previously mentioned, although there may not be much coverage in precipitation across the north to begin to the short term period, a low level jet will help enhance and increase such coverage through the morning hours on Friday, particularly near and just to the north of the I-70 corridor. For locations further south towards the Ohio River, mainly dry conditions are anticipated before diurnal heating once again leads to initiation of scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity (although most widespread coverage may stay just south of the ILN CWA through most of the afternoon/evening). Any activity that develops will slowly migrate north and westward through southern portions of the area. With a bit more instability expected in these areas, have again included the potential for thunder. Latest guidance has come in a bit cooler with temps during the day on Friday, most likely owing to widespread cloud cover throughout the local area. Temperatures will range from near 70 degrees in the north to the upper 70s in the south (where there may be a few breaks in the clouds towards the afternoon). The trend of unseasonably warm overnight periods will again continue on Friday night as lows again will drop to around 60 in the north to the mid 60s in the south. Although precipitation chances will again be lower Friday night (compared to Friday during the day), precipitation chances will continue on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short wave will lift across the area on Saturday which will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the region. The activity may linger into the evening in eastern counties. In the wake of this system, it appears that a boundary will lay out somewhere across the middle or northern part of the forecast area. This will serve as a focus for additional scattered convection through Monday. A short wave moving out of the middle part of the country and then across the Great Lakes will cause a low to develop and move along the boundary Monday night into Tuesday. As this low moves east, the front will pass across the region. This will bring the persistent chance of showers and thunderstorms to an end. High pressure will build in Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal through the period. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of this time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Instability has decreased therefore any thunder should be isolated. Showers will be present around the TAF sites this evening and gradually decrease in coverage for a time overnight before additional rounds of showers move in late in the overnight and through the day on Friday. There is some limited instability around KCVG and KLUK on Friday, however kept thunder mention out of the TAFs at this time. Ceilings will lower on Friday with cigs in the MVFR to IFR range. Visbys may briefly be reduced to the MVFR range this evening with a boundary in the area around KDAY, KILN, KCVG, and KLUK, however winds will stay up so think fog will be minimal. There will be some wind gusts during the day on Friday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visbilities likely to continue into Friday night. Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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