Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180821 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An area of low pressure will lift gradually through the Ohio Valley today through Saturday, bringing the likelihood for showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible early next week under a warm and humid airmass. Drier weather is forecast to build in with high pressure during the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1009 mb surface low is centered over Tennessee this morning. The low will be pushed slowly by an upper trough to Kentucky by late afternoon. Rather deep moisture aligned with a band of PVA ahead of the low will produce showers and possibly thunderstorms in a marginally unstable environment containing about 300 j/kg CAPE, and modest shear. Though showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as instability rises with daytime heating, severe weather seems unlikely due to the low CAPE and shear. High temperatures are forecast to reach the near normal mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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As the surface low continues its northward track through Kentucky into Indiana tonight, expect showers to exhibit a diminishing trend with loss of daytime heating and with the initial band of PVA lifting north. Then on Saturday, as the low approaches Lake Erie, showers and possibly thunderstorms will once again increase in coverage as convection blossoms when afternoon temperatures reach the upper 70s to around 80. Thunderstorm updrafts may become a bit more intense Saturday than on Friday due to CAPEs near 1000 j/kg.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level low which opens up will be lifting northeast through the Ohio Valley Saturday night. Will continue high chance pops in the east during the evening and then diminish pops overnight as the s/w exists the area. On the periphery of mid/upper level ridging a s/w is expected to track through the area. This forcing combined with moderate instability will again lead to mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to be around 10 degrees above normal with highs Sunday in the lower and middle 80s. Chance pops for mainly diurnally driven storms to continue Monday. Warm temperatures to continue with highs of 80 to 85. Some model timing differences exist regarding the passage of a surface front. Will side with the ECMWF with front coming through Tuesday offering and enhanced chance for thunderstorms. Warm highs from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast expected Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure with a dry weather period developing from mid week through the end of the week. Expect highs Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large but rather weak area of low pressure will affect TAF sites. Conditions are VFR to start except at fog-prone LUK. Ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR by 14z as moisture increases in the circulation around the low. Showers in the vicinity are expected to become prevailing about 18z in a band of moisture convergence and lift rotating around the low. Showers should diminish near the end of the forecast, while ceilings remain mainly MVFR. Winds from the northeast to east will average 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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